Recent Houthi announcements of a naval blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait since July 20, 2026, combined with claimed missile and drone strikes on multiple oil tankers, have driven elevated market-implied odds for successful targeting of commercial shipping. These actions expand risks to Red Sea transit, a critical route handling several million barrels per day of Saudi crude exports rerouted from the disrupted Strait of Hormuz amid U.S.-Iran hostilities. Resulting ship diversions, reduced transits, and higher insurance premiums have amplified volatility in energy benchmarks and global supply chains. Upcoming catalysts include potential multinational naval responses and any escalation tied to regional ceasefires or proxy dynamics, which could shift probabilities based on confirmed kinetic incidents before month-end resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$259,377 交易量
2026-08-17
8月17日
75%
8月23日
5%
8月24日
91%
8月25日
13%
8月26日
66%
8月27日
52%
8月28日
26%
8月29日
48%
8月30日
24%
8月31日
16%
$259,377 交易量
8月17日
$9,046 交易量
75%
8月23日
$2,324 交易量
5%
8月24日
$5,075 交易量
91%
8月25日
$2,780 交易量
13%
8月26日
$1,093 交易量
66%
8月27日
$2,215 交易量
52%
8月28日
$2,491 交易量
26%
8月29日
$2,967 交易量
48%
8月30日
$2,215 交易量
24%
8月31日
$3,772 交易量
16%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.Recent Houthi announcements of a naval blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait since July 20, 2026, combined with claimed missile and drone strikes on multiple oil tankers, have driven elevated market-implied odds for successful targeting of commercial shipping. These actions expand risks to Red Sea transit, a critical route handling several million barrels per day of Saudi crude exports rerouted from the disrupted Strait of Hormuz amid U.S.-Iran hostilities. Resulting ship diversions, reduced transits, and higher insurance premiums have amplified volatility in energy benchmarks and global supply chains. Upcoming catalysts include potential multinational naval responses and any escalation tied to regional ceasefires or proxy dynamics, which could shift probabilities based on confirmed kinetic incidents before month-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
市場開放時間： Jul 23, 2026, 10:39 AM ET
交易量
$259,377結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Jul 23, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.Recent Houthi announcements of a naval blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait since July 20, 2026, combined with claimed missile and drone strikes on multiple oil tankers, have driven elevated market-implied odds for successful targeting of commercial shipping. These actions expand risks to Red Sea transit, a critical route handling several million barrels per day of Saudi crude exports rerouted from the disrupted Strait of Hormuz amid U.S.-Iran hostilities. Resulting ship diversions, reduced transits, and higher insurance premiums have amplified volatility in energy benchmarks and global supply chains. Upcoming catalysts include potential multinational naval responses and any escalation tied to regional ceasefires or proxy dynamics, which could shift probabilities based on confirmed kinetic incidents before month-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
交易量
$259,377結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Jul 23, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Houthi announcements of a naval blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait since July 20, 2026, combined with claimed missile and drone strikes on multiple oil tankers, have driven elevated market-implied odds for successful targeting of commercial shipping. These actions expand risks to Red Sea transit, a critical route handling several million barrels per day of Saudi crude exports rerouted from the disrupted Strait of Hormuz amid U.S.-Iran hostilities. Resulting ship diversions, reduced transits, and higher insurance premiums have amplified volatility in energy benchmarks and global supply chains. Upcoming catalysts include potential multinational naval responses and any escalation tied to regional ceasefires or proxy dynamics, which could shift probabilities based on confirmed kinetic incidents before month-end resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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