The Justice Department inquiry reported in late May 2026 into possible perjury by E. Jean Carroll during her 2022 deposition—focused on statements about third-party funding for her civil lawsuits against President Trump—remains the central driver of trader views on federal charges. Reporting centered on a nonprofit tied to Reid Hoffman that covered some legal costs, though the U.S. Attorney for the Northern District of Illinois quickly denied any criminal investigation targeted Carroll herself. No indictments or arrests have followed, the second $83.3 million defamation verdict continues through appeals, and the first $5 million judgment was left intact after the Supreme Court declined review in June 2026. Procedural timelines, the absence of new public evidence, and competing accounts of the inquiry’s scope continue to shape implied probabilities in the market.