Recent Houthi attacks, including a fatal strike on a container ship in mid-August, and elevated war-risk premiums above 1% of hull value have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed near 29–38 vessels per day, according to MarineTraffic and IMF PortWatch data through late August. This environment favors the closely matched 25–29 and 30–34 buckets as traders weigh persistent rerouting incentives and selective targeting of Saudi-linked tonnage against modest week-on-week stability in laden and ballast movements. Key swing factors include any further escalation in threats, potential toll arrangements, or de-escalation signals that could shift compliant commercial flows, while tanker-specific averages near 8 per day underscore the divergence between headline counts and high-value energy volumes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於30-34 39%
25-29 37%
少於25 11.8%
35-39 12%
$28,559 交易量
$28,559 交易量
2026-08-31
少於25
12%
25-29
37%
30-34
39%
35-39
12%
40+
3%
30-34 39%
25-29 37%
少於25 11.8%
35-39 12%
$28,559 交易量
$28,559 交易量
2026-08-31
少於25
$4,897 交易量
12%
25-29
$6,816 交易量
37%
30-34
$6,794 交易量
39%
35-39
$4,148 交易量
12%
40+
$5,905 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks, including a fatal strike on a container ship in mid-August, and elevated war-risk premiums above 1% of hull value have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed near 29–38 vessels per day, according to MarineTraffic and IMF PortWatch data through late August. This environment favors the closely matched 25–29 and 30–34 buckets as traders weigh persistent rerouting incentives and selective targeting of Saudi-linked tonnage against modest week-on-week stability in laden and ballast movements. Key swing factors include any further escalation in threats, potential toll arrangements, or de-escalation signals that could shift compliant commercial flows, while tanker-specific averages near 8 per day underscore the divergence between headline counts and high-value energy volumes.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
市場開放時間： Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ET
交易量
$28,559結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ET結算來源
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks, including a fatal strike on a container ship in mid-August, and elevated war-risk premiums above 1% of hull value have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed near 29–38 vessels per day, according to MarineTraffic and IMF PortWatch data through late August. This environment favors the closely matched 25–29 and 30–34 buckets as traders weigh persistent rerouting incentives and selective targeting of Saudi-linked tonnage against modest week-on-week stability in laden and ballast movements. Key swing factors include any further escalation in threats, potential toll arrangements, or de-escalation signals that could shift compliant commercial flows, while tanker-specific averages near 8 per day underscore the divergence between headline counts and high-value energy volumes.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
交易量
$28,559結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ET結算來源
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi attacks, including a fatal strike on a container ship in mid-August, and elevated war-risk premiums above 1% of hull value have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed near 29–38 vessels per day, according to MarineTraffic and IMF PortWatch data through late August. This environment favors the closely matched 25–29 and 30–34 buckets as traders weigh persistent rerouting incentives and selective targeting of Saudi-linked tonnage against modest week-on-week stability in laden and ballast movements. Key swing factors include any further escalation in threats, potential toll arrangements, or de-escalation signals that could shift compliant commercial flows, while tanker-specific averages near 8 per day underscore the divergence between headline counts and high-value energy volumes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions