Official National Hurricane Center forecasts show Tropical Storm Lowell, currently at 60 knots with improving organization over warm central Pacific waters near 28–29°C, poised for rapid intensification as easterly shear diminishes. Multiple models, including HAFS and SHIPS, project it reaching hurricane strength within 12 hours and major hurricane status shortly thereafter, driven by low shear, favorable upper-level outflow, and a closed low-level circulation evident in recent microwave imagery. Trader consensus at 95.8% reflects this strong alignment between official guidance and environmental conditions. Residual uncertainty stems mainly from potential interaction with nearby Hurricane Karina, which could introduce disruptive shear or dry air if tracks converge more than expected.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWill Tropical Storm Lowell strengthen to a hurricane?
Will Tropical Storm Lowell strengthen to a hurricane?
96% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 8, 2026
96% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 8, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Lowell reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Lowell reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Lowell is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Lowell does not reach hurricane strength by September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".Official National Hurricane Center forecasts show Tropical Storm Lowell, currently at 60 knots with improving organization over warm central Pacific waters near 28–29°C, poised for rapid intensification as easterly shear diminishes. Multiple models, including HAFS and SHIPS, project it reaching hurricane strength within 12 hours and major hurricane status shortly thereafter, driven by low shear, favorable upper-level outflow, and a closed low-level circulation evident in recent microwave imagery. Trader consensus at 95.8% reflects this strong alignment between official guidance and environmental conditions. Residual uncertainty stems mainly from potential interaction with nearby Hurricane Karina, which could introduce disruptive shear or dry air if tracks converge more than expected.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Lowell reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Lowell reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Lowell is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Lowell does not reach hurricane strength by September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Lowell reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Lowell is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Lowell does not reach hurricane strength by September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Thị trường mở: Aug 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Khối lượng
$3,979Ngày kết thúc
Sep 9, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Người giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Lowell reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Lowell reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Lowell is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Lowell does not reach hurricane strength by September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".Official National Hurricane Center forecasts show Tropical Storm Lowell, currently at 60 knots with improving organization over warm central Pacific waters near 28–29°C, poised for rapid intensification as easterly shear diminishes. Multiple models, including HAFS and SHIPS, project it reaching hurricane strength within 12 hours and major hurricane status shortly thereafter, driven by low shear, favorable upper-level outflow, and a closed low-level circulation evident in recent microwave imagery. Trader consensus at 95.8% reflects this strong alignment between official guidance and environmental conditions. Residual uncertainty stems mainly from potential interaction with nearby Hurricane Karina, which could introduce disruptive shear or dry air if tracks converge more than expected.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Lowell reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Lowell reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Lowell is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Lowell does not reach hurricane strength by September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Lowell reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Lowell is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Lowell does not reach hurricane strength by September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Khối lượng
$3,979Ngày kết thúc
Sep 9, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Người giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Official National Hurricane Center forecasts show Tropical Storm Lowell, currently at 60 knots with improving organization over warm central Pacific waters near 28–29°C, poised for rapid intensification as easterly shear diminishes. Multiple models, including HAFS and SHIPS, project it reaching hurricane strength within 12 hours and major hurricane status shortly thereafter, driven by low shear, favorable upper-level outflow, and a closed low-level circulation evident in recent microwave imagery. Trader consensus at 95.8% reflects this strong alignment between official guidance and environmental conditions. Residual uncertainty stems mainly from potential interaction with nearby Hurricane Karina, which could introduce disruptive shear or dry air if tracks converge more than expected.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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