Traders assign a 96.3% probability that China will not invade Taiwan by the end of 2026, reflecting the short remaining window and absence of large-scale mobilization or imminent indicators in recent months. Beijing has sustained gray-zone pressure through coast guard patrols, maritime surveys east of Taiwan, and normalized air incursions, while avoiding steps that would signal full preparation for amphibious assault. Taipei has responded with record defense budgets exceeding NT$1 trillion, accelerated drone and missile procurement, and civil-defense exercises testing resilience to blockades or communications disruption. Diplomatic channels, including potential high-level U.S.-China meetings, and the high operational risks of an invasion further support the current consensus. Shifts could still arise from sudden miscalculation, major leadership changes, or rapid escalation in the final months.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtTrung Quốc sẽ xâm lược Đài Loan vào cuối năm 2026?
Trung Quốc sẽ xâm lược Đài Loan vào cuối năm 2026?
Có
4% khả năng
$40,644,864 KL.
$40,644,864 KL.
Dec 30, 2026
Kiếm 3.25%
Có
4% khả năng
$40,644,864 KL.
$40,644,864 KL.
Dec 30, 2026
Kiếm 3.25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 96.3% probability that China will not invade Taiwan by the end of 2026, reflecting the short remaining window and absence of large-scale mobilization or imminent indicators in recent months. Beijing has sustained gray-zone pressure through coast guard patrols, maritime surveys east of Taiwan, and normalized air incursions, while avoiding steps that would signal full preparation for amphibious assault. Taipei has responded with record defense budgets exceeding NT$1 trillion, accelerated drone and missile procurement, and civil-defense exercises testing resilience to blockades or communications disruption. Diplomatic channels, including potential high-level U.S.-China meetings, and the high operational risks of an invasion further support the current consensus. Shifts could still arise from sudden miscalculation, major leadership changes, or rapid escalation in the final months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Thị trường mở: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
Khối lượng
$40,644,864Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 96.3% probability that China will not invade Taiwan by the end of 2026, reflecting the short remaining window and absence of large-scale mobilization or imminent indicators in recent months. Beijing has sustained gray-zone pressure through coast guard patrols, maritime surveys east of Taiwan, and normalized air incursions, while avoiding steps that would signal full preparation for amphibious assault. Taipei has responded with record defense budgets exceeding NT$1 trillion, accelerated drone and missile procurement, and civil-defense exercises testing resilience to blockades or communications disruption. Diplomatic channels, including potential high-level U.S.-China meetings, and the high operational risks of an invasion further support the current consensus. Shifts could still arise from sudden miscalculation, major leadership changes, or rapid escalation in the final months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Khối lượng
$40,644,864Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x157Ce2d67...Traders assign a 96.3% probability that China will not invade Taiwan by the end of 2026, reflecting the short remaining window and absence of large-scale mobilization or imminent indicators in recent months. Beijing has sustained gray-zone pressure through coast guard patrols, maritime surveys east of Taiwan, and normalized air incursions, while avoiding steps that would signal full preparation for amphibious assault. Taipei has responded with record defense budgets exceeding NT$1 trillion, accelerated drone and missile procurement, and civil-defense exercises testing resilience to blockades or communications disruption. Diplomatic channels, including potential high-level U.S.-China meetings, and the high operational risks of an invasion further support the current consensus. Shifts could still arise from sudden miscalculation, major leadership changes, or rapid escalation in the final months.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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