Recent softening in U.S. median home prices, driven by mortgage rates holding near 6.5% and modestly rising inventory, underpins the 64.7% implied probability for values below $419,000 on September 30. Existing-home median sales prices reached $434,100 in July per FRED data before easing from June peaks, while Redfin and Realtor.com metrics show July medians near $408,000–$430,000 amid slower year-over-year gains of 1–3%. Higher-for-longer borrowing costs have weighed on demand, supporting price moderation across tiers even as supply constraints persist. With resolution imminent, traders are pricing in continued stabilization or further softening rather than renewed acceleration, consistent with the narrow 29.4% probability on the $419K–$426K band.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật<$419K 64.3%
$419K - $426K 30.4%
$426K - $433K 6.9%
$433K - $440K 2.0%
$77,275 KL.
$77,275 KL.
Sep 29, 2026
<$419K
64%
$419K - $426K
30%
$426K - $433K
7%
$433K - $440K
2%
$440K - $447K
<1%
$447K - $454K
<1%
$454K+
<1%
<$419K 64.3%
$419K - $426K 30.4%
$426K - $433K 6.9%
$433K - $440K 2.0%
$77,275 KL.
$77,275 KL.
Sep 29, 2026
<$419K
$23,936 KL.
64%
$419K - $426K
$15,381 KL.
30%
$426K - $433K
$10,547 KL.
7%
$433K - $440K
$17,107 KL.
2%
$440K - $447K
$5,038 KL.
<1%
$447K - $454K
$4,389 KL.
<1%
$454K+
$878 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/49)Recent softening in U.S. median home prices, driven by mortgage rates holding near 6.5% and modestly rising inventory, underpins the 64.7% implied probability for values below $419,000 on September 30. Existing-home median sales prices reached $434,100 in July per FRED data before easing from June peaks, while Redfin and Realtor.com metrics show July medians near $408,000–$430,000 amid slower year-over-year gains of 1–3%. Higher-for-longer borrowing costs have weighed on demand, supporting price moderation across tiers even as supply constraints persist. With resolution imminent, traders are pricing in continued stabilization or further softening rather than renewed acceleration, consistent with the narrow 29.4% probability on the $419K–$426K band.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/49)
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/49)
Thị trường mở: Jul 1, 2026, 3:55 PM ET
Khối lượng
$77,275Ngày kết thúc
Sep 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 1, 2026, 3:55 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/49)Recent softening in U.S. median home prices, driven by mortgage rates holding near 6.5% and modestly rising inventory, underpins the 64.7% implied probability for values below $419,000 on September 30. Existing-home median sales prices reached $434,100 in July per FRED data before easing from June peaks, while Redfin and Realtor.com metrics show July medians near $408,000–$430,000 amid slower year-over-year gains of 1–3%. Higher-for-longer borrowing costs have weighed on demand, supporting price moderation across tiers even as supply constraints persist. With resolution imminent, traders are pricing in continued stabilization or further softening rather than renewed acceleration, consistent with the narrow 29.4% probability on the $419K–$426K band.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/49)
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/49)
Khối lượng
$77,275Ngày kết thúc
Sep 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 1, 2026, 3:55 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent softening in U.S. median home prices, driven by mortgage rates holding near 6.5% and modestly rising inventory, underpins the 64.7% implied probability for values below $419,000 on September 30. Existing-home median sales prices reached $434,100 in July per FRED data before easing from June peaks, while Redfin and Realtor.com metrics show July medians near $408,000–$430,000 amid slower year-over-year gains of 1–3%. Higher-for-longer borrowing costs have weighed on demand, supporting price moderation across tiers even as supply constraints persist. With resolution imminent, traders are pricing in continued stabilization or further softening rather than renewed acceleration, consistent with the narrow 29.4% probability on the $419K–$426K band.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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