Recent July 2026 data showing 4.1% unemployment and 3.4% headline CPI—both near key thresholds—anchor trader sentiment toward a soft landing by year-end, with the 63% implied probability reflecting resilient growth, steady consumer spending, and a labor market that has avoided sharp deterioration. Sticky core inflation near 2.5% and the Federal Reserve's decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% amid divided FOMC votes sustain the 34.5% overheating odds, as markets weigh the risk of persistent price pressures above 3.5% if energy and services costs do not moderate. Modest upward revisions in unemployment forecasts to around 4.5-4.6% by December limit stagflation or slack scenarios to under 5% combined. Key near-term catalysts include the September CPI release, August employment report, and upcoming FOMC communications that could shift rate-path expectations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtSoft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 63%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 35%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 4.7%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) <1%
$70,300 KL.
$70,300 KL.
Jan 30, 2027
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
63%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
35%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
5%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
<1%
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 63%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 35%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 4.7%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) <1%
$70,300 KL.
$70,300 KL.
Jan 30, 2027
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
$32,839 KL.
63%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
$24,208 KL.
35%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
$10,744 KL.
5%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
$2,508 KL.
<1%
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.Recent July 2026 data showing 4.1% unemployment and 3.4% headline CPI—both near key thresholds—anchor trader sentiment toward a soft landing by year-end, with the 63% implied probability reflecting resilient growth, steady consumer spending, and a labor market that has avoided sharp deterioration. Sticky core inflation near 2.5% and the Federal Reserve's decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% amid divided FOMC votes sustain the 34.5% overheating odds, as markets weigh the risk of persistent price pressures above 3.5% if energy and services costs do not moderate. Modest upward revisions in unemployment forecasts to around 4.5-4.6% by December limit stagflation or slack scenarios to under 5% combined. Key near-term catalysts include the September CPI release, August employment report, and upcoming FOMC communications that could shift rate-path expectations.
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
Thị trường mở: Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Khối lượng
$70,300Ngày kết thúc
Jan 31, 2027Thị trường mở
Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.Recent July 2026 data showing 4.1% unemployment and 3.4% headline CPI—both near key thresholds—anchor trader sentiment toward a soft landing by year-end, with the 63% implied probability reflecting resilient growth, steady consumer spending, and a labor market that has avoided sharp deterioration. Sticky core inflation near 2.5% and the Federal Reserve's decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% amid divided FOMC votes sustain the 34.5% overheating odds, as markets weigh the risk of persistent price pressures above 3.5% if energy and services costs do not moderate. Modest upward revisions in unemployment forecasts to around 4.5-4.6% by December limit stagflation or slack scenarios to under 5% combined. Key near-term catalysts include the September CPI release, August employment report, and upcoming FOMC communications that could shift rate-path expectations.
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
Khối lượng
$70,300Ngày kết thúc
Jan 31, 2027Thị trường mở
Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July 2026 data showing 4.1% unemployment and 3.4% headline CPI—both near key thresholds—anchor trader sentiment toward a soft landing by year-end, with the 63% implied probability reflecting resilient growth, steady consumer spending, and a labor market that has avoided sharp deterioration. Sticky core inflation near 2.5% and the Federal Reserve's decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% amid divided FOMC votes sustain the 34.5% overheating odds, as markets weigh the risk of persistent price pressures above 3.5% if energy and services costs do not moderate. Modest upward revisions in unemployment forecasts to around 4.5-4.6% by December limit stagflation or slack scenarios to under 5% combined. Key near-term catalysts include the September CPI release, August employment report, and upcoming FOMC communications that could shift rate-path expectations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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