Recent U.S. Drought Monitor data show D4 exceptional drought covering about 1.5% of the contiguous United States, concentrated in persistent western areas where long-term precipitation deficits and low soil moisture persist. Short-term forecasts for mid-September indicate above-normal precipitation chances across much of the West and Four Corners region from lingering monsoon influences, which could limit further intensification or expansion, while central and southern Plains face continued flash-drought risk from heat and dryness. Model consensus highlights steering patterns and evapotranspiration rates as key variables that could shift D4 boundaries by one or two states. The upcoming USDM release, based on conditions through roughly September 15, will incorporate new station data and satellite observations to determine the exact state count.