Spider-Man: Brand New Day opened to a record $360 million domestically on July 31, 2026, establishing the biggest domestic debut ever and propelling it past $500 million in its first week through exceptional presales, IMAX and premium large format demand, and strong Tom Holland-driven audience interest. Current tracking and Friday numbers point to a sophomore frame near $143 million, a roughly 60% drop that aligns with historical patterns for tentpoles of this scale while still delivering one of the strongest second weekends on record. Trader consensus heavily favors the sub-$180 million outcome because the film’s momentum, while dominant, follows predictable blockbuster decay curves rather than the outsized holds needed to push totals dramatically higher. An upset into the $180 million-plus range would require unusually robust word-of-mouth retention or unexpected competition weakness, neither of which appears in verified tracking or early weekend data.