A rapidly strengthening super El Niño in the tropical Pacific, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and multi-model forecasts pointing to a November–January peak near +3.5–4°C, combines with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend to elevate September 2026 global temperatures. Record ocean heat content through August and recent monthly anomalies near or above 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels support trader-implied odds favoring a second-place finish (56%), as the event’s global temperature response typically lags peak ENSO conditions by several months and 2024 remains the benchmark. Model consensus and historical analogs from prior strong events indicate a realistic path to first place if early intensification boosts September anomalies further, while dataset differences and natural variability introduce uncertainty that could push the month to third or lower.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtSeptember 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
2nd hottest 57%
1st hottest 36%
4th or lower 29%
3rd hottest 26%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 30, 2026
1st hottest
36%
2nd hottest
57%
3rd hottest
26%
4th or lower
29%
2nd hottest 57%
1st hottest 36%
4th or lower 29%
3rd hottest 26%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 30, 2026
1st hottest
$273 KL.
36%
2nd hottest
$0 KL.
57%
3rd hottest
$0 KL.
26%
4th or lower
$250 KL.
29%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A rapidly strengthening super El Niño in the tropical Pacific, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and multi-model forecasts pointing to a November–January peak near +3.5–4°C, combines with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend to elevate September 2026 global temperatures. Record ocean heat content through August and recent monthly anomalies near or above 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels support trader-implied odds favoring a second-place finish (56%), as the event’s global temperature response typically lags peak ENSO conditions by several months and 2024 remains the benchmark. Model consensus and historical analogs from prior strong events indicate a realistic path to first place if early intensification boosts September anomalies further, while dataset differences and natural variability introduce uncertainty that could push the month to third or lower.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Thị trường mở: Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
Khối lượng
$523Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A rapidly strengthening super El Niño in the tropical Pacific, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and multi-model forecasts pointing to a November–January peak near +3.5–4°C, combines with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend to elevate September 2026 global temperatures. Record ocean heat content through August and recent monthly anomalies near or above 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels support trader-implied odds favoring a second-place finish (56%), as the event’s global temperature response typically lags peak ENSO conditions by several months and 2024 remains the benchmark. Model consensus and historical analogs from prior strong events indicate a realistic path to first place if early intensification boosts September anomalies further, while dataset differences and natural variability introduce uncertainty that could push the month to third or lower.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Khối lượng
$523Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...A rapidly strengthening super El Niño in the tropical Pacific, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and multi-model forecasts pointing to a November–January peak near +3.5–4°C, combines with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend to elevate September 2026 global temperatures. Record ocean heat content through August and recent monthly anomalies near or above 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels support trader-implied odds favoring a second-place finish (56%), as the event’s global temperature response typically lags peak ENSO conditions by several months and 2024 remains the benchmark. Model consensus and historical analogs from prior strong events indicate a realistic path to first place if early intensification boosts September anomalies further, while dataset differences and natural variability introduce uncertainty that could push the month to third or lower.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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