Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño-3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and models favoring a very strong event through fall 2026, represent the dominant driver tilting trader sentiment toward below-normal September precipitation in Seattle. This phase typically displaces the Pacific jet stream southward, suppressing storm activity over the Pacific Northwest and favoring drier conditions relative to the 1.6-inch 1991–2020 climatological average. NOAA seasonal guidance reinforces this signal with elevated odds of below-normal rainfall for the region, consistent with recent analogs and dynamical model consensus. While short-term forecasts indicate possible early-month showers from a Gulf of Alaska system, the broader atmospheric setup and weak long-term precipitation trends support the market’s emphasis on totals clustered near or below 1.5 inches amid inherent forecast uncertainty.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtPrecipitation in Seattle in September?
Precipitation in Seattle in September?
<1" 26%
1-1.5" 20%
1.5-2" 17%
2.5-3" 16%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 30, 2026
<1"
26%
1-1.5"
20%
1.5-2"
17%
2.5-3"
16%
2-2.5"
14%
3-4"
11%
>4"
7%
<1" 26%
1-1.5" 20%
1.5-2" 17%
2.5-3" 16%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 30, 2026
<1"
$156 KL.
26%
1-1.5"
$118 KL.
20%
1.5-2"
$112 KL.
17%
2.5-3"
$182 KL.
16%
2-2.5"
$130 KL.
14%
3-4"
$203 KL.
11%
>4"
$203 KL.
7%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Seattle between September 1 and September 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for September 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño-3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and models favoring a very strong event through fall 2026, represent the dominant driver tilting trader sentiment toward below-normal September precipitation in Seattle. This phase typically displaces the Pacific jet stream southward, suppressing storm activity over the Pacific Northwest and favoring drier conditions relative to the 1.6-inch 1991–2020 climatological average. NOAA seasonal guidance reinforces this signal with elevated odds of below-normal rainfall for the region, consistent with recent analogs and dynamical model consensus. While short-term forecasts indicate possible early-month showers from a Gulf of Alaska system, the broader atmospheric setup and weak long-term precipitation trends support the market’s emphasis on totals clustered near or below 1.5 inches amid inherent forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Seattle between September 1 and September 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for September 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for September 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Thị trường mở: Aug 31, 2026, 9:43 AM ET
Khối lượng
$1,104Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 31, 2026, 9:43 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Seattle between September 1 and September 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for September 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño-3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and models favoring a very strong event through fall 2026, represent the dominant driver tilting trader sentiment toward below-normal September precipitation in Seattle. This phase typically displaces the Pacific jet stream southward, suppressing storm activity over the Pacific Northwest and favoring drier conditions relative to the 1.6-inch 1991–2020 climatological average. NOAA seasonal guidance reinforces this signal with elevated odds of below-normal rainfall for the region, consistent with recent analogs and dynamical model consensus. While short-term forecasts indicate possible early-month showers from a Gulf of Alaska system, the broader atmospheric setup and weak long-term precipitation trends support the market’s emphasis on totals clustered near or below 1.5 inches amid inherent forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Seattle between September 1 and September 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for September 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for September 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Khối lượng
$1,104Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 31, 2026, 9:43 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño-3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and models favoring a very strong event through fall 2026, represent the dominant driver tilting trader sentiment toward below-normal September precipitation in Seattle. This phase typically displaces the Pacific jet stream southward, suppressing storm activity over the Pacific Northwest and favoring drier conditions relative to the 1.6-inch 1991–2020 climatological average. NOAA seasonal guidance reinforces this signal with elevated odds of below-normal rainfall for the region, consistent with recent analogs and dynamical model consensus. While short-term forecasts indicate possible early-month showers from a Gulf of Alaska system, the broader atmospheric setup and weak long-term precipitation trends support the market’s emphasis on totals clustered near or below 1.5 inches amid inherent forecast uncertainty.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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