Recent polling averages place Bündnis 90/Die Grünen at 5–6 percent ahead of the 6 September 2026 Landtag election, with the most recent surveys from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, INSA, and Infratest dimap clustering in that band. This positioning keeps the 5–7 percent outcome as the clearest reflection of current voter intentions, as the party hovers near the five-percent threshold that determines parliamentary entry. Late-August and early-September fieldwork shows only modest movement, with no decisive campaign events or national tailwinds altering the trajectory. The Greens’ result will hinge on turnout among their core supporters and the final distribution of undecided voters, factors that have kept probabilities concentrated in the narrow range traders currently price.