Google’s repeated delays on Gemini 3.5 Pro, teased at I/O 2026 for a June launch and later slipped to July, remain the dominant driver behind the 68.5% implied probability of no new Pro model by September 30. The company has instead prioritized rapid iteration on lower-cost Flash variants, releasing Gemini 3.8 Flash on September 2 alongside 3.7 Flash in mid-August, while confirming that internal candidates for 3.5 Pro fell short on coding and agentic benchmarks. With pretraining underway on the more ambitious Gemini 4 and no firm public timeline for a flagship Pro update, traders see limited near-term catalysts capable of shifting the consensus before month-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNo release by September 30 69%
September 30 5.8%
September 7 4.1%
September 23 3.8%
$62,043 KL.
$62,043 KL.
Sep 30, 2026
September 5
1%
September 6
<1%
September 7
4%
September 8
<1%
September 9
<1%
September 10
<1%
September 11
1%
September 12
1%
September 13
<1%
September 14
<1%
September 15
2%
September 16
1%
September 17
2%
September 18
<1%
September 19
1%
September 20
1%
September 21
1%
September 22
2%
September 23
4%
September 24
3%
September 25
1%
September 26
1%
September 27
1%
September 28
<1%
September 29
1%
September 30
6%
No release by September 30
69%
No release by September 30 69%
September 30 5.8%
September 7 4.1%
September 23 3.8%
$62,043 KL.
$62,043 KL.
Sep 30, 2026
September 5
$302 KL.
1%
September 6
$307 KL.
<1%
September 7
$406 KL.
4%
September 8
$294 KL.
<1%
September 9
$302 KL.
<1%
September 10
$302 KL.
<1%
September 11
$298 KL.
1%
September 12
$302 KL.
1%
September 13
$302 KL.
<1%
September 14
$307 KL.
<1%
September 15
$542 KL.
2%
September 16
$538 KL.
1%
September 17
$542 KL.
2%
September 18
$305 KL.
<1%
September 19
$302 KL.
1%
September 20
$302 KL.
1%
September 21
$302 KL.
1%
September 22
$579 KL.
2%
September 23
$449 KL.
4%
September 24
$589 KL.
3%
September 25
$298 KL.
1%
September 26
$300 KL.
1%
September 27
$302 KL.
1%
September 28
$480 KL.
<1%
September 29
$370 KL.
1%
September 30
$682 KL.
6%
No release by September 30
$49,147 KL.
69%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s repeated delays on Gemini 3.5 Pro, teased at I/O 2026 for a June launch and later slipped to July, remain the dominant driver behind the 68.5% implied probability of no new Pro model by September 30. The company has instead prioritized rapid iteration on lower-cost Flash variants, releasing Gemini 3.8 Flash on September 2 alongside 3.7 Flash in mid-August, while confirming that internal candidates for 3.5 Pro fell short on coding and agentic benchmarks. With pretraining underway on the more ambitious Gemini 4 and no firm public timeline for a flagship Pro update, traders see limited near-term catalysts capable of shifting the consensus before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
Khối lượng
$62,043Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s repeated delays on Gemini 3.5 Pro, teased at I/O 2026 for a June launch and later slipped to July, remain the dominant driver behind the 68.5% implied probability of no new Pro model by September 30. The company has instead prioritized rapid iteration on lower-cost Flash variants, releasing Gemini 3.8 Flash on September 2 alongside 3.7 Flash in mid-August, while confirming that internal candidates for 3.5 Pro fell short on coding and agentic benchmarks. With pretraining underway on the more ambitious Gemini 4 and no firm public timeline for a flagship Pro update, traders see limited near-term catalysts capable of shifting the consensus before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$62,043Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Google’s repeated delays on Gemini 3.5 Pro, teased at I/O 2026 for a June launch and later slipped to July, remain the dominant driver behind the 68.5% implied probability of no new Pro model by September 30. The company has instead prioritized rapid iteration on lower-cost Flash variants, releasing Gemini 3.8 Flash on September 2 alongside 3.7 Flash in mid-August, while confirming that internal candidates for 3.5 Pro fell short on coding and agentic benchmarks. With pretraining underway on the more ambitious Gemini 4 and no firm public timeline for a flagship Pro update, traders see limited near-term catalysts capable of shifting the consensus before month-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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