Google’s repeated delays on Gemini 3.5 Pro, originally targeted for June 2026 after an I/O tease and then pushed to July, remain the dominant factor behind market-implied odds favoring no release by November 1. The model continues in limited partner testing without a public API or general availability date, while Google ships monthly Flash updates—including Gemini 3.8 Flash on September 2—and confirms internal work on the more ambitious Gemini 4. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-5.x and Anthropic’s Claude releases has intensified scrutiny on Google’s ability to deliver frontier Pro capabilities on schedule, with traders closely watching any official statements on performance benchmarks or expanded testing windows that could shift the timeline.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$1,228,460 KL.
Sep 30, 2026
September 15
3%
September 30
32%
October 31
74%
$1,228,460 KL.
September 15
$9,962 KL.
3%
September 30
$51,918 KL.
32%
October 31
$10,498 KL.
74%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s repeated delays on Gemini 3.5 Pro, originally targeted for June 2026 after an I/O tease and then pushed to July, remain the dominant factor behind market-implied odds favoring no release by November 1. The model continues in limited partner testing without a public API or general availability date, while Google ships monthly Flash updates—including Gemini 3.8 Flash on September 2—and confirms internal work on the more ambitious Gemini 4. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-5.x and Anthropic’s Claude releases has intensified scrutiny on Google’s ability to deliver frontier Pro capabilities on schedule, with traders closely watching any official statements on performance benchmarks or expanded testing windows that could shift the timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Aug 17, 2026, 9:18 AM ET
Khối lượng
$1,228,460Ngày kết thúc
Nov 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 17, 2026, 9:18 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s repeated delays on Gemini 3.5 Pro, originally targeted for June 2026 after an I/O tease and then pushed to July, remain the dominant factor behind market-implied odds favoring no release by November 1. The model continues in limited partner testing without a public API or general availability date, while Google ships monthly Flash updates—including Gemini 3.8 Flash on September 2—and confirms internal work on the more ambitious Gemini 4. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-5.x and Anthropic’s Claude releases has intensified scrutiny on Google’s ability to deliver frontier Pro capabilities on schedule, with traders closely watching any official statements on performance benchmarks or expanded testing windows that could shift the timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$1,228,460Ngày kết thúc
Nov 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 17, 2026, 9:18 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Google’s repeated delays on Gemini 3.5 Pro, originally targeted for June 2026 after an I/O tease and then pushed to July, remain the dominant factor behind market-implied odds favoring no release by November 1. The model continues in limited partner testing without a public API or general availability date, while Google ships monthly Flash updates—including Gemini 3.8 Flash on September 2—and confirms internal work on the more ambitious Gemini 4. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-5.x and Anthropic’s Claude releases has intensified scrutiny on Google’s ability to deliver frontier Pro capabilities on schedule, with traders closely watching any official statements on performance benchmarks or expanded testing windows that could shift the timeline.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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