The Michigan 13th district remains a heavily Democratic stronghold with a partisan voting index around D+22, making a Republican victory unlikely and keeping the general-election margin markets dispersed across multiple 5-point buckets for the Democratic nominee. Donavan McKinney’s narrow August 4 primary win over incumbent Shri Thanedar positions him as the clear general-election favorite against Republican Taras Nykoriak, whose past legal issues and limited visibility limit any realistic path to competitiveness. Trader pricing reflects this baseline, with Republican-win shares at just 16 percent while Democrat-margin contracts cluster near 35–38 percent, indicating uncertainty over the precise scale of the expected victory rather than doubt about the outcome itself. Absent late developments such as major scandals, turnout shifts in Detroit suburbs, or national economic shocks within the final weeks, the race is expected to resolve within the 30–60 percent Democratic margin range typical for the district.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMI-13 House Election Margin of Victory
MI-13 House Election Margin of Victory
Democrat 25-35% 37%
Democrat 55-60% 37%
Democrat 40-45% 37%
Democrat 35-40% 37%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 65%+
21%
Democrat 60-65%
35%
Democrat 55-60%
37%
Democrat 50-55%
36%
Democrat 45-50%
36%
Democrat 40-45%
37%
Democrat 35-40%
37%
Democrat 25-35%
37%
Democrat 0-25%
37%
Republican Wins
13%
Democrat 25-35% 37%
Democrat 55-60% 37%
Democrat 40-45% 37%
Democrat 35-40% 37%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 65%+
$0 KL.
21%
Democrat 60-65%
$0 KL.
35%
Democrat 55-60%
$0 KL.
37%
Democrat 50-55%
$0 KL.
36%
Democrat 45-50%
$0 KL.
36%
Democrat 40-45%
$0 KL.
37%
Democrat 35-40%
$0 KL.
37%
Democrat 25-35%
$0 KL.
37%
Democrat 0-25%
$0 KL.
37%
Republican Wins
$0 KL.
13%
The 2026 MI-13 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MI-13 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Michigan 13th district remains a heavily Democratic stronghold with a partisan voting index around D+22, making a Republican victory unlikely and keeping the general-election margin markets dispersed across multiple 5-point buckets for the Democratic nominee. Donavan McKinney’s narrow August 4 primary win over incumbent Shri Thanedar positions him as the clear general-election favorite against Republican Taras Nykoriak, whose past legal issues and limited visibility limit any realistic path to competitiveness. Trader pricing reflects this baseline, with Republican-win shares at just 16 percent while Democrat-margin contracts cluster near 35–38 percent, indicating uncertainty over the precise scale of the expected victory rather than doubt about the outcome itself. Absent late developments such as major scandals, turnout shifts in Detroit suburbs, or national economic shocks within the final weeks, the race is expected to resolve within the 30–60 percent Democratic margin range typical for the district.
The 2026 MI-13 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MI-13 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MI-13 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Aug 10, 2026, 12:08 PM ET
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 10, 2026, 12:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 MI-13 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MI-13 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Michigan 13th district remains a heavily Democratic stronghold with a partisan voting index around D+22, making a Republican victory unlikely and keeping the general-election margin markets dispersed across multiple 5-point buckets for the Democratic nominee. Donavan McKinney’s narrow August 4 primary win over incumbent Shri Thanedar positions him as the clear general-election favorite against Republican Taras Nykoriak, whose past legal issues and limited visibility limit any realistic path to competitiveness. Trader pricing reflects this baseline, with Republican-win shares at just 16 percent while Democrat-margin contracts cluster near 35–38 percent, indicating uncertainty over the precise scale of the expected victory rather than doubt about the outcome itself. Absent late developments such as major scandals, turnout shifts in Detroit suburbs, or national economic shocks within the final weeks, the race is expected to resolve within the 30–60 percent Democratic margin range typical for the district.
The 2026 MI-13 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MI-13 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MI-13 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 10, 2026, 12:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Michigan 13th district remains a heavily Democratic stronghold with a partisan voting index around D+22, making a Republican victory unlikely and keeping the general-election margin markets dispersed across multiple 5-point buckets for the Democratic nominee. Donavan McKinney’s narrow August 4 primary win over incumbent Shri Thanedar positions him as the clear general-election favorite against Republican Taras Nykoriak, whose past legal issues and limited visibility limit any realistic path to competitiveness. Trader pricing reflects this baseline, with Republican-win shares at just 16 percent while Democrat-margin contracts cluster near 35–38 percent, indicating uncertainty over the precise scale of the expected victory rather than doubt about the outcome itself. Absent late developments such as major scandals, turnout shifts in Detroit suburbs, or national economic shocks within the final weeks, the race is expected to resolve within the 30–60 percent Democratic margin range typical for the district.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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