Luke Bronin’s 60.5% market share reflects momentum from his May 2026 upset victory over 14-term incumbent John Larson at the Democratic nominating convention, where Bronin secured the party endorsement on the second ballot by a narrow 51.2%–48.8% margin. That outcome reversed earlier polling that had favored Larson and positioned Bronin as the frontrunner heading into the August 11 primary. Subsequent May polling showed Bronin ahead by eight points among likely Democratic primary voters, bolstered by strong favorability ratings from his two terms as Hartford mayor and a fundraising edge. State Representative Jillian Gilchrest and other challengers qualified for the ballot but trail significantly in both surveys and trader pricing, leaving the race centered on the Bronin-Larson contest.