Recent polls ahead of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern's 20 September Landtag election place the AfD between 35% and 37%, positioning the 35-38% range as the trader consensus outcome. Infratest dimap's late-August survey showed the AfD at 35% and the SPD at 32%, narrowing a prior gap, while Forsa recorded 37% for the AfD and 28% for the SPD. The AfD has led consistently since early 2026 on themes including migration controls and energy policy, yet the SPD under incumbent Minister President Manuela Schwesig has gained in the final stretch due to her personal popularity. Smaller parties such as the Left remain near 11%, limiting coalition options and keeping the AfD below thresholds for an absolute majority. With two weeks remaining, late-campaign shifts could still adjust final vote shares.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật35-38% 48%
32-35% 26%
38%+ 22%
<32% <1%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 20, 2026
<32%
1%
32-35%
26%
35-38%
48%
38%+
22%
35-38% 48%
32-35% 26%
38%+ 22%
<32% <1%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 20, 2026
<32%
$1,978 KL.
1%
32-35%
$1,972 KL.
26%
35-38%
$1,314 KL.
48%
38%+
$4,584 KL.
22%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polls ahead of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern's 20 September Landtag election place the AfD between 35% and 37%, positioning the 35-38% range as the trader consensus outcome. Infratest dimap's late-August survey showed the AfD at 35% and the SPD at 32%, narrowing a prior gap, while Forsa recorded 37% for the AfD and 28% for the SPD. The AfD has led consistently since early 2026 on themes including migration controls and energy policy, yet the SPD under incumbent Minister President Manuela Schwesig has gained in the final stretch due to her personal popularity. Smaller parties such as the Left remain near 11%, limiting coalition options and keeping the AfD below thresholds for an absolute majority. With two weeks remaining, late-campaign shifts could still adjust final vote shares.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Thị trường mở: Aug 20, 2026, 2:33 PM ET
Khối lượng
$9,849Ngày kết thúc
Sep 20, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 20, 2026, 2:33 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polls ahead of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern's 20 September Landtag election place the AfD between 35% and 37%, positioning the 35-38% range as the trader consensus outcome. Infratest dimap's late-August survey showed the AfD at 35% and the SPD at 32%, narrowing a prior gap, while Forsa recorded 37% for the AfD and 28% for the SPD. The AfD has led consistently since early 2026 on themes including migration controls and energy policy, yet the SPD under incumbent Minister President Manuela Schwesig has gained in the final stretch due to her personal popularity. Smaller parties such as the Left remain near 11%, limiting coalition options and keeping the AfD below thresholds for an absolute majority. With two weeks remaining, late-campaign shifts could still adjust final vote shares.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Khối lượng
$9,849Ngày kết thúc
Sep 20, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 20, 2026, 2:33 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls ahead of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern's 20 September Landtag election place the AfD between 35% and 37%, positioning the 35-38% range as the trader consensus outcome. Infratest dimap's late-August survey showed the AfD at 35% and the SPD at 32%, narrowing a prior gap, while Forsa recorded 37% for the AfD and 28% for the SPD. The AfD has led consistently since early 2026 on themes including migration controls and energy policy, yet the SPD under incumbent Minister President Manuela Schwesig has gained in the final stretch due to her personal popularity. Smaller parties such as the Left remain near 11%, limiting coalition options and keeping the AfD below thresholds for an absolute majority. With two weeks remaining, late-campaign shifts could still adjust final vote shares.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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