Recent forecast consensus from models including ECMWF and GFS points to a minimum temperature in Ankara on September 21 near 13–14 °C, with the market’s tight clustering around 11–14 °C reflecting ensemble spread and limited differentiation among runs. Primary drivers include nocturnal radiative cooling under predominantly clear skies, light northeasterly winds that limit boundary-layer mixing, and Ankara’s plateau elevation near 900 m, which favors modest overnight drops. Dew-point values near 10–12 °C and surface pressure around 1018–1020 hPa support efficient heat loss after sunset, while any increase in low-level cloud or wind would raise the low by 1–2 °C. Updated model guidance and official Turkish Meteorological Service briefings in the next 48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts for shifts in trader-implied probabilities.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLowest temperature in Ankara on September 21?
Lowest temperature in Ankara on September 21?
12°C 40%
13°C 40%
14°C 40%
11°C 39%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 21, 2026
10°C or below
17%
11°C
39%
12°C
40%
13°C
40%
14°C
40%
15°C
19%
16°C
11%
17°C
7%
18°C
5%
19°C
4%
20°C or higher
4%
12°C 40%
13°C 40%
14°C 40%
11°C 39%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 21, 2026
10°C or below
$0 KL.
17%
11°C
$0 KL.
39%
12°C
$0 KL.
40%
13°C
$0 KL.
40%
14°C
$0 KL.
40%
15°C
$0 KL.
19%
16°C
$0 KL.
11%
17°C
$0 KL.
7%
18°C
$0 KL.
5%
19°C
$0 KL.
4%
20°C or higher
$0 KL.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from models including ECMWF and GFS points to a minimum temperature in Ankara on September 21 near 13–14 °C, with the market’s tight clustering around 11–14 °C reflecting ensemble spread and limited differentiation among runs. Primary drivers include nocturnal radiative cooling under predominantly clear skies, light northeasterly winds that limit boundary-layer mixing, and Ankara’s plateau elevation near 900 m, which favors modest overnight drops. Dew-point values near 10–12 °C and surface pressure around 1018–1020 hPa support efficient heat loss after sunset, while any increase in low-level cloud or wind would raise the low by 1–2 °C. Updated model guidance and official Turkish Meteorological Service briefings in the next 48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts for shifts in trader-implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Sep 19, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Sep 21, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 19, 2026, 12:29 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from models including ECMWF and GFS points to a minimum temperature in Ankara on September 21 near 13–14 °C, with the market’s tight clustering around 11–14 °C reflecting ensemble spread and limited differentiation among runs. Primary drivers include nocturnal radiative cooling under predominantly clear skies, light northeasterly winds that limit boundary-layer mixing, and Ankara’s plateau elevation near 900 m, which favors modest overnight drops. Dew-point values near 10–12 °C and surface pressure around 1018–1020 hPa support efficient heat loss after sunset, while any increase in low-level cloud or wind would raise the low by 1–2 °C. Updated model guidance and official Turkish Meteorological Service briefings in the next 48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts for shifts in trader-implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Sep 21, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 19, 2026, 12:29 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast consensus from models including ECMWF and GFS points to a minimum temperature in Ankara on September 21 near 13–14 °C, with the market’s tight clustering around 11–14 °C reflecting ensemble spread and limited differentiation among runs. Primary drivers include nocturnal radiative cooling under predominantly clear skies, light northeasterly winds that limit boundary-layer mixing, and Ankara’s plateau elevation near 900 m, which favors modest overnight drops. Dew-point values near 10–12 °C and surface pressure around 1018–1020 hPa support efficient heat loss after sunset, while any increase in low-level cloud or wind would raise the low by 1–2 °C. Updated model guidance and official Turkish Meteorological Service briefings in the next 48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts for shifts in trader-implied probabilities.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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