**Traders assign overwhelming probability (91.5%) to fewer than five X posts from Mojtaba Khamenei-linked accounts in the September 11–18 window, reflecting the current Supreme Leader’s established pattern of minimal direct social media output.** Mojtaba succeeded his father Ali Khamenei after the latter’s death in early 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes and has maintained a low public profile since, issuing communications primarily through occasional written statements on Telegram or state media rather than frequent X activity. Associated accounts have shown only sporadic posting in recent weeks, largely tied to commemorative content around mid-August observances, with no evidence of sustained increases. No major diplomatic summits, military escalations, policy milestones, or crisis events are currently scheduled in the narrow resolution window that would typically generate additional official statements. Health-related speculation around Mojtaba has prompted archival releases and presidential reassurances of fitness, yet these have not translated into higher direct X engagement. Recent weeks’ posting rates align with this measured baseline. Scenarios that could realistically increase volume include sudden regional security developments or high-stakes diplomatic announcements requiring immediate official commentary.