Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations under the June 2026 Islamabad MOU have deferred decisions on uranium enrichment limits to a final agreement, while Iran maintains the status quo on its nuclear activities and resists immediate IAEA access to key sites damaged in prior conflicts. Disputes over inspection timing and stockpile down-blending persist without resolution, and no breakthrough has emerged by late August to meet a September 30 deadline. Trader consensus at 96.7% for “No” reflects these stalled talks, verification gaps, and Iran’s position that enrichment frameworks belong in comprehensive negotiations rather than interim steps. A sudden diplomatic concession or accelerated final deal could still shift probabilities before the cutoff.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?
3% khả năng
$64,142 KL.
$64,142 KL.
Sep 30, 2026
3% khả năng
$64,142 KL.
$64,142 KL.
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations under the June 2026 Islamabad MOU have deferred decisions on uranium enrichment limits to a final agreement, while Iran maintains the status quo on its nuclear activities and resists immediate IAEA access to key sites damaged in prior conflicts. Disputes over inspection timing and stockpile down-blending persist without resolution, and no breakthrough has emerged by late August to meet a September 30 deadline. Trader consensus at 96.7% for “No” reflects these stalled talks, verification gaps, and Iran’s position that enrichment frameworks belong in comprehensive negotiations rather than interim steps. A sudden diplomatic concession or accelerated final deal could still shift probabilities before the cutoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ET
Khối lượng
$64,142Ngày kết thúc
Sep 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations under the June 2026 Islamabad MOU have deferred decisions on uranium enrichment limits to a final agreement, while Iran maintains the status quo on its nuclear activities and resists immediate IAEA access to key sites damaged in prior conflicts. Disputes over inspection timing and stockpile down-blending persist without resolution, and no breakthrough has emerged by late August to meet a September 30 deadline. Trader consensus at 96.7% for “No” reflects these stalled talks, verification gaps, and Iran’s position that enrichment frameworks belong in comprehensive negotiations rather than interim steps. A sudden diplomatic concession or accelerated final deal could still shift probabilities before the cutoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$64,142Ngày kết thúc
Sep 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations under the June 2026 Islamabad MOU have deferred decisions on uranium enrichment limits to a final agreement, while Iran maintains the status quo on its nuclear activities and resists immediate IAEA access to key sites damaged in prior conflicts. Disputes over inspection timing and stockpile down-blending persist without resolution, and no breakthrough has emerged by late August to meet a September 30 deadline. Trader consensus at 96.7% for “No” reflects these stalled talks, verification gaps, and Iran’s position that enrichment frameworks belong in comprehensive negotiations rather than interim steps. A sudden diplomatic concession or accelerated final deal could still shift probabilities before the cutoff.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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