Recent Houthi seizures of Mokha port, Perim Island, and adjacent coastal positions on September 10–11 have sharply curtailed Bab el-Mandeb transits, halving daily crossings to around 15 vessels amid credible threats of further disruption. This territorial consolidation strengthens the group’s leverage over the Red Sea chokepoint, prompting carriers to maintain Cape of Good Hope rerouting and suppressing volumes well below pre-crisis baselines of roughly 200+ weekly transits. Trader sentiment reflected in the 39% implied probability for fewer than 170 ships the week of September 14 prices in sustained avoidance, elevated war-risk premiums, and potential Saudi-linked embargo enforcement, while higher brackets capture any near-term de-escalation or selective resumption. Oil benchmarks near $105 per barrel underscore the broader supply-chain impact.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 14?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 14?
<170 23%
170-189 23%
190-209 23%
210-229 23%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 20, 2026
<170
23%
170-189
23%
190-209
23%
210-229
23%
230+
20%
<170 23%
170-189 23%
190-209 23%
210-229 23%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 20, 2026
<170
$0 KL.
23%
170-189
$0 KL.
23%
190-209
$0 KL.
23%
210-229
$0 KL.
23%
230+
$0 KL.
20%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi seizures of Mokha port, Perim Island, and adjacent coastal positions on September 10–11 have sharply curtailed Bab el-Mandeb transits, halving daily crossings to around 15 vessels amid credible threats of further disruption. This territorial consolidation strengthens the group’s leverage over the Red Sea chokepoint, prompting carriers to maintain Cape of Good Hope rerouting and suppressing volumes well below pre-crisis baselines of roughly 200+ weekly transits. Trader sentiment reflected in the 39% implied probability for fewer than 170 ships the week of September 14 prices in sustained avoidance, elevated war-risk premiums, and potential Saudi-linked embargo enforcement, while higher brackets capture any near-term de-escalation or selective resumption. Oil benchmarks near $105 per barrel underscore the broader supply-chain impact.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Thị trường mở: Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Sep 20, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79cNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi seizures of Mokha port, Perim Island, and adjacent coastal positions on September 10–11 have sharply curtailed Bab el-Mandeb transits, halving daily crossings to around 15 vessels amid credible threats of further disruption. This territorial consolidation strengthens the group’s leverage over the Red Sea chokepoint, prompting carriers to maintain Cape of Good Hope rerouting and suppressing volumes well below pre-crisis baselines of roughly 200+ weekly transits. Trader sentiment reflected in the 39% implied probability for fewer than 170 ships the week of September 14 prices in sustained avoidance, elevated war-risk premiums, and potential Saudi-linked embargo enforcement, while higher brackets capture any near-term de-escalation or selective resumption. Oil benchmarks near $105 per barrel underscore the broader supply-chain impact.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Sep 20, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79cNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi seizures of Mokha port, Perim Island, and adjacent coastal positions on September 10–11 have sharply curtailed Bab el-Mandeb transits, halving daily crossings to around 15 vessels amid credible threats of further disruption. This territorial consolidation strengthens the group’s leverage over the Red Sea chokepoint, prompting carriers to maintain Cape of Good Hope rerouting and suppressing volumes well below pre-crisis baselines of roughly 200+ weekly transits. Trader sentiment reflected in the 39% implied probability for fewer than 170 ships the week of September 14 prices in sustained avoidance, elevated war-risk premiums, and potential Saudi-linked embargo enforcement, while higher brackets capture any near-term de-escalation or selective resumption. Oil benchmarks near $105 per barrel underscore the broader supply-chain impact.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp