xAI's Grok 5, a planned 6T–10T parameter Mixture-of-Experts large language model, remains in training on the Colossus 2 gigawatt-scale cluster after missing Q1 and Q2 2026 targets, which has shifted trader consensus toward a late-2026 window. The company has maintained competitive positioning by shipping rapid interim releases—Grok 4.5 in July and 4.6 in August—while Grok 4.7 targets September 12, allowing continued parity in coding and agentic benchmarks against OpenAI and Anthropic models. Key factors include infrastructure scaling, post-training timelines, and talent attrition following the SpaceX integration, with any official confirmation of completion or a Q4 public rollout serving as the next major catalyst for market-implied odds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$11,345 KL.
Nov 30, 2026
October 31
10%
November 30
25%
December 31
64%
$11,345 KL.
October 31
$2,167 KL.
10%
November 30
$614 KL.
25%
December 31
$3,487 KL.
64%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI's Grok 5, a planned 6T–10T parameter Mixture-of-Experts large language model, remains in training on the Colossus 2 gigawatt-scale cluster after missing Q1 and Q2 2026 targets, which has shifted trader consensus toward a late-2026 window. The company has maintained competitive positioning by shipping rapid interim releases—Grok 4.5 in July and 4.6 in August—while Grok 4.7 targets September 12, allowing continued parity in coding and agentic benchmarks against OpenAI and Anthropic models. Key factors include infrastructure scaling, post-training timelines, and talent attrition following the SpaceX integration, with any official confirmation of completion or a Q4 public rollout serving as the next major catalyst for market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ET
Khối lượng
$11,345Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI's Grok 5, a planned 6T–10T parameter Mixture-of-Experts large language model, remains in training on the Colossus 2 gigawatt-scale cluster after missing Q1 and Q2 2026 targets, which has shifted trader consensus toward a late-2026 window. The company has maintained competitive positioning by shipping rapid interim releases—Grok 4.5 in July and 4.6 in August—while Grok 4.7 targets September 12, allowing continued parity in coding and agentic benchmarks against OpenAI and Anthropic models. Key factors include infrastructure scaling, post-training timelines, and talent attrition following the SpaceX integration, with any official confirmation of completion or a Q4 public rollout serving as the next major catalyst for market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$11,345Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...xAI's Grok 5, a planned 6T–10T parameter Mixture-of-Experts large language model, remains in training on the Colossus 2 gigawatt-scale cluster after missing Q1 and Q2 2026 targets, which has shifted trader consensus toward a late-2026 window. The company has maintained competitive positioning by shipping rapid interim releases—Grok 4.5 in July and 4.6 in August—while Grok 4.7 targets September 12, allowing continued parity in coding and agentic benchmarks against OpenAI and Anthropic models. Key factors include infrastructure scaling, post-training timelines, and talent attrition following the SpaceX integration, with any official confirmation of completion or a Q4 public rollout serving as the next major catalyst for market-implied odds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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