**Persistent inflation pressures and a hawkish tilt in Federal Reserve communications have driven the 71.5% market-implied probability of at least one rate hike in 2026.** Following the June 2026 FOMC meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the Summary of Economic Projections raised the median federal funds rate endpoint to 3.8% for year-end, with nine of 18 participants projecting at least one 25-basis-point increase amid upward revisions to 2026 PCE inflation (now 3.6%). Resilient labor market data, tariff-related price pressures, and supply shocks have reinforced expectations that the policy rate—currently anchored at 3.50%-3.75%—may need tightening before year-end. Short-term futures markets have priced in meaningful odds of a move by September or October, consistent with the removal of prior dovish forward guidance. Key near-term catalysts include the September FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation and employment releases that could shift the balance of risks.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCó
72% khả năng
$8,754,066 KL.
$8,754,066 KL.
Dec 8, 2026
Có
72% khả năng
$8,754,066 KL.
$8,754,066 KL.
Dec 8, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Persistent inflation pressures and a hawkish tilt in Federal Reserve communications have driven the 71.5% market-implied probability of at least one rate hike in 2026.** Following the June 2026 FOMC meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the Summary of Economic Projections raised the median federal funds rate endpoint to 3.8% for year-end, with nine of 18 participants projecting at least one 25-basis-point increase amid upward revisions to 2026 PCE inflation (now 3.6%). Resilient labor market data, tariff-related price pressures, and supply shocks have reinforced expectations that the policy rate—currently anchored at 3.50%-3.75%—may need tightening before year-end. Short-term futures markets have priced in meaningful odds of a move by September or October, consistent with the removal of prior dovish forward guidance. Key near-term catalysts include the September FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation and employment releases that could shift the balance of risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Khối lượng
$8,754,066Ngày kết thúc
Dec 9, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Persistent inflation pressures and a hawkish tilt in Federal Reserve communications have driven the 71.5% market-implied probability of at least one rate hike in 2026.** Following the June 2026 FOMC meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the Summary of Economic Projections raised the median federal funds rate endpoint to 3.8% for year-end, with nine of 18 participants projecting at least one 25-basis-point increase amid upward revisions to 2026 PCE inflation (now 3.6%). Resilient labor market data, tariff-related price pressures, and supply shocks have reinforced expectations that the policy rate—currently anchored at 3.50%-3.75%—may need tightening before year-end. Short-term futures markets have priced in meaningful odds of a move by September or October, consistent with the removal of prior dovish forward guidance. Key near-term catalysts include the September FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation and employment releases that could shift the balance of risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$8,754,066Ngày kết thúc
Dec 9, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...**Persistent inflation pressures and a hawkish tilt in Federal Reserve communications have driven the 71.5% market-implied probability of at least one rate hike in 2026.** Following the June 2026 FOMC meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the Summary of Economic Projections raised the median federal funds rate endpoint to 3.8% for year-end, with nine of 18 participants projecting at least one 25-basis-point increase amid upward revisions to 2026 PCE inflation (now 3.6%). Resilient labor market data, tariff-related price pressures, and supply shocks have reinforced expectations that the policy rate—currently anchored at 3.50%-3.75%—may need tightening before year-end. Short-term futures markets have priced in meaningful odds of a move by September or October, consistent with the removal of prior dovish forward guidance. Key near-term catalysts include the September FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation and employment releases that could shift the balance of risks.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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