**Elevated inflation and a hawkish policy shift under Chair Kevin Warsh are the dominant forces shaping trader views on the Fed’s September, October, and December decisions.** With the target range steady at 3.50–3.75% and July PCE near 3.7%, markets price a 59% chance of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15–16 meeting, which also includes updated economic projections. This produces closely contested probabilities across sequences such as Pause–Pause–Pause (27%) and Hike–Pause–Pause (19%), reflecting uncertainty over whether incoming labor-market and price data will sustain the restrictive stance or allow a later pause. Recent minutes and broker forecasts highlight risks of multiple hikes if inflation remains broad-based, while the removal of forward guidance increases reliance on high-frequency indicators ahead of the next three meetings.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtPause–Pause–Pause 27%
Hike–Pause–Pause 19%
Pause–Pause–Hike 13%
Pause–Hike–Hike 11%
$11,622 KL.
$11,622 KL.
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
8%
Hike–Pause–Pause
19%
Hike–Hike–Hike
5%
Hike–Hike–Pause
7%
Pause–Pause–Hike
13%
Pause–Pause–Pause
27%
Pause–Hike–Hike
11%
Pause–Hike–Pause
12%
Other
7%
Pause–Pause–Pause 27%
Hike–Pause–Pause 19%
Pause–Pause–Hike 13%
Pause–Hike–Hike 11%
$11,622 KL.
$11,622 KL.
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
$314 KL.
8%
Hike–Pause–Pause
$479 KL.
19%
Hike–Hike–Hike
$216 KL.
5%
Hike–Hike–Pause
$398 KL.
7%
Pause–Pause–Hike
$253 KL.
13%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$9,140 KL.
27%
Pause–Hike–Hike
$237 KL.
11%
Pause–Hike–Pause
$336 KL.
12%
Other
$249 KL.
7%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Elevated inflation and a hawkish policy shift under Chair Kevin Warsh are the dominant forces shaping trader views on the Fed’s September, October, and December decisions.** With the target range steady at 3.50–3.75% and July PCE near 3.7%, markets price a 59% chance of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15–16 meeting, which also includes updated economic projections. This produces closely contested probabilities across sequences such as Pause–Pause–Pause (27%) and Hike–Pause–Pause (19%), reflecting uncertainty over whether incoming labor-market and price data will sustain the restrictive stance or allow a later pause. Recent minutes and broker forecasts highlight risks of multiple hikes if inflation remains broad-based, while the removal of forward guidance increases reliance on high-frequency indicators ahead of the next three meetings.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Thị trường mở: Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Khối lượng
$11,622Ngày kết thúc
Dec 9, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Elevated inflation and a hawkish policy shift under Chair Kevin Warsh are the dominant forces shaping trader views on the Fed’s September, October, and December decisions.** With the target range steady at 3.50–3.75% and July PCE near 3.7%, markets price a 59% chance of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15–16 meeting, which also includes updated economic projections. This produces closely contested probabilities across sequences such as Pause–Pause–Pause (27%) and Hike–Pause–Pause (19%), reflecting uncertainty over whether incoming labor-market and price data will sustain the restrictive stance or allow a later pause. Recent minutes and broker forecasts highlight risks of multiple hikes if inflation remains broad-based, while the removal of forward guidance increases reliance on high-frequency indicators ahead of the next three meetings.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Khối lượng
$11,622Ngày kết thúc
Dec 9, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...**Elevated inflation and a hawkish policy shift under Chair Kevin Warsh are the dominant forces shaping trader views on the Fed’s September, October, and December decisions.** With the target range steady at 3.50–3.75% and July PCE near 3.7%, markets price a 59% chance of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15–16 meeting, which also includes updated economic projections. This produces closely contested probabilities across sequences such as Pause–Pause–Pause (27%) and Hike–Pause–Pause (19%), reflecting uncertainty over whether incoming labor-market and price data will sustain the restrictive stance or allow a later pause. Recent minutes and broker forecasts highlight risks of multiple hikes if inflation remains broad-based, while the removal of forward guidance increases reliance on high-frequency indicators ahead of the next three meetings.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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