Elevated inflation remains the dominant driver behind the near-even 44.5% odds for no change versus a 25 basis point hike at the December 2026 FOMC meeting. July CPI showed headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, with earlier 2026 readings boosted by energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions, while the Fed's June SEP projected 3.6% PCE inflation for the year and a 3.8% median federal funds rate endpoint. Officials including Chair Kevin Warsh and Governor Waller have signaled a hawkish tilt, prioritizing the 2% target amid stable labor conditions near 4.3% unemployment. The closely matched probabilities reflect trader uncertainty over whether August CPI data, due September 11, and the September 15-16 FOMC will tilt toward patience or preemptive tightening before year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNo change 45%
25 bps increase 45%
25 bps decrease 6.7%
50+ bps increase 1.6%
$534,969 KL.
$534,969 KL.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
7%
No change
45%
25 bps increase
45%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 45%
25 bps increase 45%
25 bps decrease 6.7%
50+ bps increase 1.6%
$534,969 KL.
$534,969 KL.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$84,993 KL.
2%
25 bps decrease
$136,485 KL.
7%
No change
$86,066 KL.
45%
25 bps increase
$138,632 KL.
45%
50+ bps increase
$88,794 KL.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation remains the dominant driver behind the near-even 44.5% odds for no change versus a 25 basis point hike at the December 2026 FOMC meeting. July CPI showed headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, with earlier 2026 readings boosted by energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions, while the Fed's June SEP projected 3.6% PCE inflation for the year and a 3.8% median federal funds rate endpoint. Officials including Chair Kevin Warsh and Governor Waller have signaled a hawkish tilt, prioritizing the 2% target amid stable labor conditions near 4.3% unemployment. The closely matched probabilities reflect trader uncertainty over whether August CPI data, due September 11, and the September 15-16 FOMC will tilt toward patience or preemptive tightening before year-end.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Thị trường mở: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Khối lượng
$534,969Ngày kết thúc
Dec 9, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation remains the dominant driver behind the near-even 44.5% odds for no change versus a 25 basis point hike at the December 2026 FOMC meeting. July CPI showed headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, with earlier 2026 readings boosted by energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions, while the Fed's June SEP projected 3.6% PCE inflation for the year and a 3.8% median federal funds rate endpoint. Officials including Chair Kevin Warsh and Governor Waller have signaled a hawkish tilt, prioritizing the 2% target amid stable labor conditions near 4.3% unemployment. The closely matched probabilities reflect trader uncertainty over whether August CPI data, due September 11, and the September 15-16 FOMC will tilt toward patience or preemptive tightening before year-end.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Khối lượng
$534,969Ngày kết thúc
Dec 9, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation remains the dominant driver behind the near-even 44.5% odds for no change versus a 25 basis point hike at the December 2026 FOMC meeting. July CPI showed headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, with earlier 2026 readings boosted by energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions, while the Fed's June SEP projected 3.6% PCE inflation for the year and a 3.8% median federal funds rate endpoint. Officials including Chair Kevin Warsh and Governor Waller have signaled a hawkish tilt, prioritizing the 2% target amid stable labor conditions near 4.3% unemployment. The closely matched probabilities reflect trader uncertainty over whether August CPI data, due September 11, and the September 15-16 FOMC will tilt toward patience or preemptive tightening before year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp