Recent polling from late August and early September 2026 consistently places incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in first place in the October 4 first round, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) in second at 29–34%. Flávio, officially nominated by the Liberal Party in July and backed by his father Jair Bolsonaro (ineligible due to a prior conviction), consolidates much of the right-wing vote as the primary challenger. Other declared candidates, including Augusto Cury (Avante), Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), and Renan Santos (Missão), register in the low single digits or low teens at most across Datafolha, Quaest, PoderData, and similar surveys. This positioning, combined with limited fragmentation on the opposition side and the structure of Brazil’s two-round system, underpins trader consensus on second place ahead of the campaign’s final weeks.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtFlávio Bolsonaro 90%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 6.5%
Renan Santos 1.7%
Augusto Cury 1.1%
$6,496,036 KL.
$6,496,036 KL.
Flávio Bolsonaro
90%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
7%
Renan Santos
2%
Augusto Cury
1%
Romeu Zema
<1%
Fernando Haddad
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Camilo Santana
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 90%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 6.5%
Renan Santos 1.7%
Augusto Cury 1.1%
$6,496,036 KL.
$6,496,036 KL.
Flávio Bolsonaro
90%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
7%
Renan Santos
2%
Augusto Cury
1%
Romeu Zema
<1%
Fernando Haddad
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Camilo Santana
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Thị trường mở: Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Người giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Người giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling from late August and early September 2026 consistently places incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in first place in the October 4 first round, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) in second at 29–34%. Flávio, officially nominated by the Liberal Party in July and backed by his father Jair Bolsonaro (ineligible due to a prior conviction), consolidates much of the right-wing vote as the primary challenger. Other declared candidates, including Augusto Cury (Avante), Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), and Renan Santos (Missão), register in the low single digits or low teens at most across Datafolha, Quaest, PoderData, and similar surveys. This positioning, combined with limited fragmentation on the opposition side and the structure of Brazil’s two-round system, underpins trader consensus on second place ahead of the campaign’s final weeks.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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