Recent polls ahead of Berlin’s September 20 state election show the CDU hovering between 18% and 20%, with several August surveys placing it at or below that threshold. The party has declined sharply from its 28.2% result in the 2023 repeat election amid voter fatigue with the governing CDU-SPD coalition and gains by the Left party and AfD. A mid-campaign leadership switch from Kai Wegner to Stefan Evers produced only modest stabilization rather than a sustained rebound. With one month remaining and no major late surge evident in the latest fieldwork, trader consensus assigns a 65.5% implied probability to the CDU finishing under 20%.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtOver
34% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 20, 2026
Over
34% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls ahead of Berlin’s September 20 state election show the CDU hovering between 18% and 20%, with several August surveys placing it at or below that threshold. The party has declined sharply from its 28.2% result in the 2023 repeat election amid voter fatigue with the governing CDU-SPD coalition and gains by the Left party and AfD. A mid-campaign leadership switch from Kai Wegner to Stefan Evers produced only modest stabilization rather than a sustained rebound. With one month remaining and no major late surge evident in the latest fieldwork, trader consensus assigns a 65.5% implied probability to the CDU finishing under 20%.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Thị trường mở: Aug 20, 2026, 2:19 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,108Ngày kết thúc
Sep 20, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 20, 2026, 2:19 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls ahead of Berlin’s September 20 state election show the CDU hovering between 18% and 20%, with several August surveys placing it at or below that threshold. The party has declined sharply from its 28.2% result in the 2023 repeat election amid voter fatigue with the governing CDU-SPD coalition and gains by the Left party and AfD. A mid-campaign leadership switch from Kai Wegner to Stefan Evers produced only modest stabilization rather than a sustained rebound. With one month remaining and no major late surge evident in the latest fieldwork, trader consensus assigns a 65.5% implied probability to the CDU finishing under 20%.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Khối lượng
$1,108Ngày kết thúc
Sep 20, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 20, 2026, 2:19 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polls ahead of Berlin’s September 20 state election show the CDU hovering between 18% and 20%, with several August surveys placing it at or below that threshold. The party has declined sharply from its 28.2% result in the 2023 repeat election amid voter fatigue with the governing CDU-SPD coalition and gains by the Left party and AfD. A mid-campaign leadership switch from Kai Wegner to Stefan Evers produced only modest stabilization rather than a sustained rebound. With one month remaining and no major late surge evident in the latest fieldwork, trader consensus assigns a 65.5% implied probability to the CDU finishing under 20%.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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