**Tesla has made no meaningful regulatory progress toward unsupervised robotaxi operations in California, keeping the market-implied odds heavily tilted toward “No” by year-end.** The company’s Bay Area ride-hailing service still operates exclusively with human safety drivers under a standard charter-party carrier permit—the same license issued to limousine operators—rather than any autonomous vehicle testing or deployment authorization from the California DMV or CPUC. Regulators have explicitly stated that Tesla is “not operating an autonomous vehicle service” in the state and confirmed it has filed zero autonomous test miles and has not applied for the required multi-layer permits (DMV testing, driverless testing, driverless deployment, and CPUC ride-hail authority). By contrast, competitors such as Waymo have spent years accumulating millions of autonomous miles and securing broad CPUC expansion approvals across 18 counties. Tesla’s recent Cybercab launch and unsupervised Model Y operations remain confined to more permissive states like Texas, while a new NHTSA audit query on the Cybercab’s federal self-certification adds another layer of uncertainty. With only four months remaining until December 31 and no applications or safety data submissions underway, the timeline for completing California’s rigorous approval process appears unrealistic, anchoring trader consensus around the current 77% probability for “No.”