Sustained Chinese gray-zone pressure through coast guard patrols east of Taiwan, normalized naval presence, and ADIZ activity—though at reduced monthly volumes in mid-2026—combined with ongoing PLA purges and focus on blockade scenarios, has not produced the large-scale amphibious buildup needed for a full invasion. Taiwan’s accelerated defense spending, drone procurement, Han Kuang exercises emphasizing asymmetric tactics and resilience, and reported gaps in China’s landing and sustainment capabilities reinforce assessments that Beijing lacks readiness for a complex operation by late 2027. Traders price the “No” outcome at 88.5% on the view that current coercion prioritizes erosion of resolve over imminent kinetic action, with any shift likely requiring clearer indicators of mobilization or political triggers beyond the resolution window.