Recent U.S.-China bilateral engagement, including the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, has produced preliminary agreements on mutual tariff reductions for agricultural products, expanded U.S. market access, and the creation of formal U.S.-China Boards of Trade and Investment to negotiate reciprocity. These steps build on 2025 suspensions of heightened reciprocal tariffs and exclusion processes extended through late 2026, alongside commitments for sustained Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans and other goods. Ongoing Section 301 investigations and proposed additional duties tied to forced labor concerns have prompted Chinese statements favoring negotiated outcomes over escalation. Traders assign a 77.5% implied probability to a tariff agreement by December 31, 2026, reflecting the momentum from these verified diplomatic and institutional developments within the resolution window.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоUS x China tariff agreement by December 31?
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
$16,108 Обс.
$16,108 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$16,108 Обс.
$16,108 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent U.S.-China bilateral engagement, including the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, has produced preliminary agreements on mutual tariff reductions for agricultural products, expanded U.S. market access, and the creation of formal U.S.-China Boards of Trade and Investment to negotiate reciprocity. These steps build on 2025 suspensions of heightened reciprocal tariffs and exclusion processes extended through late 2026, alongside commitments for sustained Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans and other goods. Ongoing Section 301 investigations and proposed additional duties tied to forced labor concerns have prompted Chinese statements favoring negotiated outcomes over escalation. Traders assign a 77.5% implied probability to a tariff agreement by December 31, 2026, reflecting the momentum from these verified diplomatic and institutional developments within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Ринок відкрито: May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
Обсяг
$16,108Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent U.S.-China bilateral engagement, including the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, has produced preliminary agreements on mutual tariff reductions for agricultural products, expanded U.S. market access, and the creation of formal U.S.-China Boards of Trade and Investment to negotiate reciprocity. These steps build on 2025 suspensions of heightened reciprocal tariffs and exclusion processes extended through late 2026, alongside commitments for sustained Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans and other goods. Ongoing Section 301 investigations and proposed additional duties tied to forced labor concerns have prompted Chinese statements favoring negotiated outcomes over escalation. Traders assign a 77.5% implied probability to a tariff agreement by December 31, 2026, reflecting the momentum from these verified diplomatic and institutional developments within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Обсяг
$16,108Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-China bilateral engagement, including the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, has produced preliminary agreements on mutual tariff reductions for agricultural products, expanded U.S. market access, and the creation of formal U.S.-China Boards of Trade and Investment to negotiate reciprocity. These steps build on 2025 suspensions of heightened reciprocal tariffs and exclusion processes extended through late 2026, alongside commitments for sustained Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans and other goods. Ongoing Section 301 investigations and proposed additional duties tied to forced labor concerns have prompted Chinese statements favoring negotiated outcomes over escalation. Traders assign a 77.5% implied probability to a tariff agreement by December 31, 2026, reflecting the momentum from these verified diplomatic and institutional developments within the resolution window.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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