Diplomatic tensions between Israel and several nations have eased markedly since early 2026, with no verified expulsions of Israeli ambassadors reported since South Africa's January action against a chargé d'affaires and Spain's March recall of its own envoy to Tel Aviv. Iran's March statements offering incentives for such moves produced no follow-through from Arab or European states, and bilateral relations have stabilized amid ongoing regional diplomacy through August. Traders assign an 85.5% implied probability to "No" because these factors indicate limited momentum for new persona non grata declarations before year-end, though sudden escalations in conflicts or parliamentary pressure remain potential catalysts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?
15% шанс
$53,517 Обс.
$53,517 Обс.
Dec 30, 2026
15% шанс
$53,517 Обс.
$53,517 Обс.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Diplomatic tensions between Israel and several nations have eased markedly since early 2026, with no verified expulsions of Israeli ambassadors reported since South Africa's January action against a chargé d'affaires and Spain's March recall of its own envoy to Tel Aviv. Iran's March statements offering incentives for such moves produced no follow-through from Arab or European states, and bilateral relations have stabilized amid ongoing regional diplomacy through August. Traders assign an 85.5% implied probability to "No" because these factors indicate limited momentum for new persona non grata declarations before year-end, though sudden escalations in conflicts or parliamentary pressure remain potential catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Обсяг
$53,517Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Diplomatic tensions between Israel and several nations have eased markedly since early 2026, with no verified expulsions of Israeli ambassadors reported since South Africa's January action against a chargé d'affaires and Spain's March recall of its own envoy to Tel Aviv. Iran's March statements offering incentives for such moves produced no follow-through from Arab or European states, and bilateral relations have stabilized amid ongoing regional diplomacy through August. Traders assign an 85.5% implied probability to "No" because these factors indicate limited momentum for new persona non grata declarations before year-end, though sudden escalations in conflicts or parliamentary pressure remain potential catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$53,517Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Diplomatic tensions between Israel and several nations have eased markedly since early 2026, with no verified expulsions of Israeli ambassadors reported since South Africa's January action against a chargé d'affaires and Spain's March recall of its own envoy to Tel Aviv. Iran's March statements offering incentives for such moves produced no follow-through from Arab or European states, and bilateral relations have stabilized amid ongoing regional diplomacy through August. Traders assign an 85.5% implied probability to "No" because these factors indicate limited momentum for new persona non grata declarations before year-end, though sudden escalations in conflicts or parliamentary pressure remain potential catalysts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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