Toy Story 5’s $160 million domestic opening in June—the second-largest of 2026 behind only Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million—anchors trader consensus at 94.5% implied probability for third place. Strong critical scores near 93% on Rotten Tomatoes, an A CinemaScore, and broad family appeal helped it outpace The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s $132 million debut while establishing a high benchmark few remaining releases are expected to clear. With Avengers: Doomsday viewed as the likeliest film to slot above it and no other confirmed 2026 tentpole tracking in the narrow window between these totals, the market prices in a clear three-film hierarchy once the year closes. An upset would require an unexpected late-year opener exceeding $160 million or a sharper-than-anticipated drop in Toy Story’s standing relative to Mario or The Odyssey.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWhich movie has 3rd biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Which movie has 3rd biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Toy Story 5 95%
Dune: Messiah 4.2%
Avengers: Doomsday 1.8%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping <1%
$28,274 Обс.
$28,274 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
Toy Story 5
95%
Dune: Messiah
4%
Avengers: Doomsday
2%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
1%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
<1%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
<1%
Toy Story 5 95%
Dune: Messiah 4.2%
Avengers: Doomsday 1.8%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping <1%
$28,274 Обс.
$28,274 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
Toy Story 5
$18,534 Обс.
95%
Dune: Messiah
$1,847 Обс.
4%
Avengers: Doomsday
$1,500 Обс.
2%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
$1,406 Обс.
1%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
$2,067 Обс.
<1%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
$1,285 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Toy Story 5’s $160 million domestic opening in June—the second-largest of 2026 behind only Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million—anchors trader consensus at 94.5% implied probability for third place. Strong critical scores near 93% on Rotten Tomatoes, an A CinemaScore, and broad family appeal helped it outpace The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s $132 million debut while establishing a high benchmark few remaining releases are expected to clear. With Avengers: Doomsday viewed as the likeliest film to slot above it and no other confirmed 2026 tentpole tracking in the narrow window between these totals, the market prices in a clear three-film hierarchy once the year closes. An upset would require an unexpected late-year opener exceeding $160 million or a sharper-than-anticipated drop in Toy Story’s standing relative to Mario or The Odyssey.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 23, 2026, 11:38 AM ET
Обсяг
$28,274Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jul 23, 2026, 11:38 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Toy Story 5’s $160 million domestic opening in June—the second-largest of 2026 behind only Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million—anchors trader consensus at 94.5% implied probability for third place. Strong critical scores near 93% on Rotten Tomatoes, an A CinemaScore, and broad family appeal helped it outpace The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s $132 million debut while establishing a high benchmark few remaining releases are expected to clear. With Avengers: Doomsday viewed as the likeliest film to slot above it and no other confirmed 2026 tentpole tracking in the narrow window between these totals, the market prices in a clear three-film hierarchy once the year closes. An upset would require an unexpected late-year opener exceeding $160 million or a sharper-than-anticipated drop in Toy Story’s standing relative to Mario or The Odyssey.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Обсяг
$28,274Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jul 23, 2026, 11:38 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Toy Story 5’s $160 million domestic opening in June—the second-largest of 2026 behind only Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million—anchors trader consensus at 94.5% implied probability for third place. Strong critical scores near 93% on Rotten Tomatoes, an A CinemaScore, and broad family appeal helped it outpace The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s $132 million debut while establishing a high benchmark few remaining releases are expected to clear. With Avengers: Doomsday viewed as the likeliest film to slot above it and no other confirmed 2026 tentpole tracking in the narrow window between these totals, the market prices in a clear three-film hierarchy once the year closes. An upset would require an unexpected late-year opener exceeding $160 million or a sharper-than-anticipated drop in Toy Story’s standing relative to Mario or The Odyssey.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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