El Niño conditions have suppressed 2026 Atlantic activity, yielding only two short-lived tropical storms—Arthur in mid-June and Bertha in July—with no hurricanes formed through early August despite the season's June 1 start. Official NHC and NOAA outlooks note below-normal expectations overall, with historical analogs and current steering patterns plus Saharan dust limiting early intensification. This keeps Cristobal, the next name on the WMO list after Arthur and Bertha, as the leading candidate to reach sustained 74 mph winds first, followed by Dolly or Edouard depending on formation timing and model consensus for the central tropical Atlantic or Caribbean. Recent quiet conditions and the approaching climatological peak around mid-August could shift odds with any new disturbance or forecast update.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWhat will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?
What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?
Edouard 33%
Dolly 11%
Paulette 10%
Marco 9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 1, 2026
Cristobal
42%
Dolly
30%
Edouard
19%
Fay
5%
Gonzalo
4%
Hanna
5%
Isaias
5%
Josephine
5%
Kyle
4%
Leah
3%
Marco
9%
Nana
9%
Omar
9%
Paulette
10%
Rene
5%
Sally
3%
Teddy
5%
Vicky
8%
Wilfred
5%
Other
4%
Edouard 33%
Dolly 11%
Paulette 10%
Marco 9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 1, 2026
Cristobal
$162 Обс.
42%
Dolly
$86 Обс.
30%
Edouard
$222 Обс.
19%
Fay
$72 Обс.
5%
Gonzalo
$72 Обс.
4%
Hanna
$73 Обс.
5%
Isaias
$88 Обс.
5%
Josephine
$55 Обс.
5%
Kyle
$94 Обс.
4%
Leah
$59 Обс.
3%
Marco
$107 Обс.
9%
Nana
$51 Обс.
9%
Omar
$63 Обс.
9%
Paulette
$67 Обс.
10%
Rene
$63 Обс.
5%
Sally
$131 Обс.
3%
Teddy
$63 Обс.
5%
Vicky
$90 Обс.
8%
Wilfred
$118 Обс.
5%
Other
$63 Обс.
4%
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. El Niño conditions have suppressed 2026 Atlantic activity, yielding only two short-lived tropical storms—Arthur in mid-June and Bertha in July—with no hurricanes formed through early August despite the season's June 1 start. Official NHC and NOAA outlooks note below-normal expectations overall, with historical analogs and current steering patterns plus Saharan dust limiting early intensification. This keeps Cristobal, the next name on the WMO list after Arthur and Bertha, as the leading candidate to reach sustained 74 mph winds first, followed by Dolly or Edouard depending on formation timing and model consensus for the central tropical Atlantic or Caribbean. Recent quiet conditions and the approaching climatological peak around mid-August could shift odds with any new disturbance or forecast update.
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,801Дата завершення
Dec 2, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. El Niño conditions have suppressed 2026 Atlantic activity, yielding only two short-lived tropical storms—Arthur in mid-June and Bertha in July—with no hurricanes formed through early August despite the season's June 1 start. Official NHC and NOAA outlooks note below-normal expectations overall, with historical analogs and current steering patterns plus Saharan dust limiting early intensification. This keeps Cristobal, the next name on the WMO list after Arthur and Bertha, as the leading candidate to reach sustained 74 mph winds first, followed by Dolly or Edouard depending on formation timing and model consensus for the central tropical Atlantic or Caribbean. Recent quiet conditions and the approaching climatological peak around mid-August could shift odds with any new disturbance or forecast update.
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
Обсяг
$1,801Дата завершення
Dec 2, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...El Niño conditions have suppressed 2026 Atlantic activity, yielding only two short-lived tropical storms—Arthur in mid-June and Bertha in July—with no hurricanes formed through early August despite the season's June 1 start. Official NHC and NOAA outlooks note below-normal expectations overall, with historical analogs and current steering patterns plus Saharan dust limiting early intensification. This keeps Cristobal, the next name on the WMO list after Arthur and Bertha, as the leading candidate to reach sustained 74 mph winds first, followed by Dolly or Edouard depending on formation timing and model consensus for the central tropical Atlantic or Caribbean. Recent quiet conditions and the approaching climatological peak around mid-August could shift odds with any new disturbance or forecast update.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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