Oklahoma's 4th congressional district, anchored in southern Oklahoma including Lawton, Norman, and southern Oklahoma City suburbs, features a longstanding Republican advantage reflected in its R+17 partisan voting index and the incumbent's consistent double-digit general election margins. Tom Cole, the sitting representative since 2003, secured the Republican nomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly 71 percent against a single challenger, while Democrat Mitchell Jacob advanced from his party's primary. Cook Political Report classifies the race as Solid Republican, consistent with the district's voting patterns and Cole's substantial cash reserves. With the November 3 general election still months away, trader consensus assigns the Republican Party a 93.5 percent implied probability because structural factors and recent primary results have produced no competitive pressure. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen development such as a major scandal, health event, or an unusually strong national Democratic surge capable of overcoming the district's baseline Republican tilt.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоOK-04 House Election Winner
OK-04 House Election Winner
$25,389 Обс.
$25,389 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
6%
$25,389 Обс.
$25,389 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$14,515 Обс.
94%
Democratic Party
$10,874 Обс.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Oklahoma's 4th congressional district, anchored in southern Oklahoma including Lawton, Norman, and southern Oklahoma City suburbs, features a longstanding Republican advantage reflected in its R+17 partisan voting index and the incumbent's consistent double-digit general election margins. Tom Cole, the sitting representative since 2003, secured the Republican nomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly 71 percent against a single challenger, while Democrat Mitchell Jacob advanced from his party's primary. Cook Political Report classifies the race as Solid Republican, consistent with the district's voting patterns and Cole's substantial cash reserves. With the November 3 general election still months away, trader consensus assigns the Republican Party a 93.5 percent implied probability because structural factors and recent primary results have produced no competitive pressure. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen development such as a major scandal, health event, or an unusually strong national Democratic surge capable of overcoming the district's baseline Republican tilt.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Обсяг
$25,389Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Oklahoma's 4th congressional district, anchored in southern Oklahoma including Lawton, Norman, and southern Oklahoma City suburbs, features a longstanding Republican advantage reflected in its R+17 partisan voting index and the incumbent's consistent double-digit general election margins. Tom Cole, the sitting representative since 2003, secured the Republican nomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly 71 percent against a single challenger, while Democrat Mitchell Jacob advanced from his party's primary. Cook Political Report classifies the race as Solid Republican, consistent with the district's voting patterns and Cole's substantial cash reserves. With the November 3 general election still months away, trader consensus assigns the Republican Party a 93.5 percent implied probability because structural factors and recent primary results have produced no competitive pressure. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen development such as a major scandal, health event, or an unusually strong national Democratic surge capable of overcoming the district's baseline Republican tilt.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$25,389Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Oklahoma's 4th congressional district, anchored in southern Oklahoma including Lawton, Norman, and southern Oklahoma City suburbs, features a longstanding Republican advantage reflected in its R+17 partisan voting index and the incumbent's consistent double-digit general election margins. Tom Cole, the sitting representative since 2003, secured the Republican nomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly 71 percent against a single challenger, while Democrat Mitchell Jacob advanced from his party's primary. Cook Political Report classifies the race as Solid Republican, consistent with the district's voting patterns and Cole's substantial cash reserves. With the November 3 general election still months away, trader consensus assigns the Republican Party a 93.5 percent implied probability because structural factors and recent primary results have produced no competitive pressure. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen development such as a major scandal, health event, or an unusually strong national Democratic surge capable of overcoming the district's baseline Republican tilt.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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