The 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election on September 20 features AfD support stabilized near 35-36% in July polls, positioning the party for roughly 25-32 seats out of 71 under proportional rules with leveling mandates. This range reflects steady regional strength in eastern Germany, SPD erosion under incumbent Manuela Schwesig, and low support for smaller parties that could alter seat distribution through threshold effects or vote fragmentation. The race remains tight because vote shares for AfD and SPD hover in a band that produces overlapping seat outcomes once overhang and leveling are applied, while national CDU-SPD dynamics and the preceding Saxony-Anhalt vote introduce modest uncertainty about turnout and late shifts. Developments that could widen probabilities include final-week polling swings, turnout differentials among AfD-leaning voters, or unexpected performance by Linke or BSW that changes the effective quota per seat.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено28-31 32%
24-27 28%
32-35 28%
20-23 27%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 20, 2026
<20
22%
20-23
27%
24-27
28%
28-31
32%
32-35
28%
36+
5%
28-31 32%
24-27 28%
32-35 28%
20-23 27%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 20, 2026
<20
$30 Обс.
22%
20-23
$0 Обс.
27%
24-27
$0 Обс.
28%
28-31
$100 Обс.
32%
32-35
$0 Обс.
28%
36+
$161 Обс.
5%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).The 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election on September 20 features AfD support stabilized near 35-36% in July polls, positioning the party for roughly 25-32 seats out of 71 under proportional rules with leveling mandates. This range reflects steady regional strength in eastern Germany, SPD erosion under incumbent Manuela Schwesig, and low support for smaller parties that could alter seat distribution through threshold effects or vote fragmentation. The race remains tight because vote shares for AfD and SPD hover in a band that produces overlapping seat outcomes once overhang and leveling are applied, while national CDU-SPD dynamics and the preceding Saxony-Anhalt vote introduce modest uncertainty about turnout and late shifts. Developments that could widen probabilities include final-week polling swings, turnout differentials among AfD-leaning voters, or unexpected performance by Linke or BSW that changes the effective quota per seat.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Ринок відкрито: Aug 6, 2026, 9:00 PM ET
Обсяг
$291Дата завершення
Sep 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 6, 2026, 9:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).The 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election on September 20 features AfD support stabilized near 35-36% in July polls, positioning the party for roughly 25-32 seats out of 71 under proportional rules with leveling mandates. This range reflects steady regional strength in eastern Germany, SPD erosion under incumbent Manuela Schwesig, and low support for smaller parties that could alter seat distribution through threshold effects or vote fragmentation. The race remains tight because vote shares for AfD and SPD hover in a band that produces overlapping seat outcomes once overhang and leveling are applied, while national CDU-SPD dynamics and the preceding Saxony-Anhalt vote introduce modest uncertainty about turnout and late shifts. Developments that could widen probabilities include final-week polling swings, turnout differentials among AfD-leaning voters, or unexpected performance by Linke or BSW that changes the effective quota per seat.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Обсяг
$291Дата завершення
Sep 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 6, 2026, 9:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election on September 20 features AfD support stabilized near 35-36% in July polls, positioning the party for roughly 25-32 seats out of 71 under proportional rules with leveling mandates. This range reflects steady regional strength in eastern Germany, SPD erosion under incumbent Manuela Schwesig, and low support for smaller parties that could alter seat distribution through threshold effects or vote fragmentation. The race remains tight because vote shares for AfD and SPD hover in a band that produces overlapping seat outcomes once overhang and leveling are applied, while national CDU-SPD dynamics and the preceding Saxony-Anhalt vote introduce modest uncertainty about turnout and late shifts. Developments that could widen probabilities include final-week polling swings, turnout differentials among AfD-leaning voters, or unexpected performance by Linke or BSW that changes the effective quota per seat.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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