**Trader consensus strongly favors a lowest temperature of 21°C in Chengdu on September 5, 2026, at 99.5% implied probability.** This positioning reflects the latest numerical weather prediction models and observational data showing clear to partly cloudy skies, light winds, and radiative cooling under typical early-September subtropical high-pressure influence. Official forecasts from sources such as the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles consistently project overnight lows near 23°C, with the precise 21°C outcome aligning closely once rounding, station-specific measurements, and microclimate effects at standard urban reporting sites are considered. Historical climatology for the period places average September minimums in the low 20s°C, supporting the tight clustering around this value. Scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome include unexpected increases in cloud cover or humidity that reduce nocturnal heat loss, a sudden wind shift advecting warmer air from surrounding terrain, or revisions in final verified station readings from the primary reporting network. With the market nearing resolution, any late-model updates or real-time observational shifts would be the key variables to monitor.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Chengdu on September 5?
Lowest temperature in Chengdu on September 5?
21°C 99.5%
19°C <1%
18°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 5, 2026
18°C or below
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
100%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
21°C 99.5%
19°C <1%
18°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 5, 2026
18°C or below
$57 Обс.
1%
19°C
$67 Обс.
1%
20°C
$32 Обс.
<1%
21°C
$631 Обс.
100%
22°C
$186 Обс.
<1%
23°C
$1,720 Обс.
<1%
24°C
$2,923 Обс.
<1%
25°C
$45 Обс.
<1%
26°C
$40 Обс.
<1%
27°C
$45 Обс.
<1%
28°C or higher
$1,038 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors a lowest temperature of 21°C in Chengdu on September 5, 2026, at 99.5% implied probability.** This positioning reflects the latest numerical weather prediction models and observational data showing clear to partly cloudy skies, light winds, and radiative cooling under typical early-September subtropical high-pressure influence. Official forecasts from sources such as the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles consistently project overnight lows near 23°C, with the precise 21°C outcome aligning closely once rounding, station-specific measurements, and microclimate effects at standard urban reporting sites are considered. Historical climatology for the period places average September minimums in the low 20s°C, supporting the tight clustering around this value.
Scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome include unexpected increases in cloud cover or humidity that reduce nocturnal heat loss, a sudden wind shift advecting warmer air from surrounding terrain, or revisions in final verified station readings from the primary reporting network. With the market nearing resolution, any late-model updates or real-time observational shifts would be the key variables to monitor.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$6,783Дата завершення
Sep 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors a lowest temperature of 21°C in Chengdu on September 5, 2026, at 99.5% implied probability.** This positioning reflects the latest numerical weather prediction models and observational data showing clear to partly cloudy skies, light winds, and radiative cooling under typical early-September subtropical high-pressure influence. Official forecasts from sources such as the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles consistently project overnight lows near 23°C, with the precise 21°C outcome aligning closely once rounding, station-specific measurements, and microclimate effects at standard urban reporting sites are considered. Historical climatology for the period places average September minimums in the low 20s°C, supporting the tight clustering around this value.
Scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome include unexpected increases in cloud cover or humidity that reduce nocturnal heat loss, a sudden wind shift advecting warmer air from surrounding terrain, or revisions in final verified station readings from the primary reporting network. With the market nearing resolution, any late-model updates or real-time observational shifts would be the key variables to monitor.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$6,783Дата завершення
Sep 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus strongly favors a lowest temperature of 21°C in Chengdu on September 5, 2026, at 99.5% implied probability.** This positioning reflects the latest numerical weather prediction models and observational data showing clear to partly cloudy skies, light winds, and radiative cooling under typical early-September subtropical high-pressure influence. Official forecasts from sources such as the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles consistently project overnight lows near 23°C, with the precise 21°C outcome aligning closely once rounding, station-specific measurements, and microclimate effects at standard urban reporting sites are considered. Historical climatology for the period places average September minimums in the low 20s°C, supporting the tight clustering around this value. Scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome include unexpected increases in cloud cover or humidity that reduce nocturnal heat loss, a sudden wind shift advecting warmer air from surrounding terrain, or revisions in final verified station readings from the primary reporting network. With the market nearing resolution, any late-model updates or real-time observational shifts would be the key variables to monitor.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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