**Trader consensus heavily favors fewer than five posts from the @khamenei_ir account during August 11–18, 2026 (57% implied probability), with 5–9 posts as the next most likely range (26%).** This positioning reflects the account’s established pattern of low-frequency activity following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death in early 2026. The official X account now primarily shares older attributed statements, occasional media, or event-linked content rather than daily original posts. Recent July–early August activity shows sporadic posting, often clustered around commemorative themes such as Arbaeen references, with multi-day gaps between updates. No major scheduled diplomatic, religious, or political milestones are confirmed for the exact window that would trigger elevated output. Traders appear to weigh the absence of the living leader and the account’s memorial-focused style against any potential for event-driven spikes, producing a clear preference for minimal weekly volume.