Iran faces persistent internal divisions following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the subsequent appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei, who has remained largely absent from public view. Hardline factions, including Paydari Front lawmakers, have repeatedly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of a “soft coup” or political power grab by elevating the Supreme National Security Council, sidelining parliament and revolutionary institutions, and advancing U.S. truce negotiations. Senior officials such as Judiciary Chief Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei warned in mid-August 2026 of risks from coups, sedition, and enemy infiltration. Reporting also highlights signs of military consolidation, including billboards depicting a junta-style leadership group without Mojtaba or traditional clerical symbols. These factional tensions and power vacuums shape trader assessments of whether a coordinated military or security-force attempt to seize control will occur by year-end, distinct from rhetorical accusations or external regime-change efforts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$2,122,921 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
9%
$2,122,921 Обс.
December 31
$81,696 Обс.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran faces persistent internal divisions following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the subsequent appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei, who has remained largely absent from public view. Hardline factions, including Paydari Front lawmakers, have repeatedly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of a “soft coup” or political power grab by elevating the Supreme National Security Council, sidelining parliament and revolutionary institutions, and advancing U.S. truce negotiations. Senior officials such as Judiciary Chief Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei warned in mid-August 2026 of risks from coups, sedition, and enemy infiltration. Reporting also highlights signs of military consolidation, including billboards depicting a junta-style leadership group without Mojtaba or traditional clerical symbols. These factional tensions and power vacuums shape trader assessments of whether a coordinated military or security-force attempt to seize control will occur by year-end, distinct from rhetorical accusations or external regime-change efforts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Обсяг
$2,122,921Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran faces persistent internal divisions following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the subsequent appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei, who has remained largely absent from public view. Hardline factions, including Paydari Front lawmakers, have repeatedly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of a “soft coup” or political power grab by elevating the Supreme National Security Council, sidelining parliament and revolutionary institutions, and advancing U.S. truce negotiations. Senior officials such as Judiciary Chief Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei warned in mid-August 2026 of risks from coups, sedition, and enemy infiltration. Reporting also highlights signs of military consolidation, including billboards depicting a junta-style leadership group without Mojtaba or traditional clerical symbols. These factional tensions and power vacuums shape trader assessments of whether a coordinated military or security-force attempt to seize control will occur by year-end, distinct from rhetorical accusations or external regime-change efforts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$2,122,921Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran faces persistent internal divisions following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the subsequent appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei, who has remained largely absent from public view. Hardline factions, including Paydari Front lawmakers, have repeatedly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of a “soft coup” or political power grab by elevating the Supreme National Security Council, sidelining parliament and revolutionary institutions, and advancing U.S. truce negotiations. Senior officials such as Judiciary Chief Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei warned in mid-August 2026 of risks from coups, sedition, and enemy infiltration. Reporting also highlights signs of military consolidation, including billboards depicting a junta-style leadership group without Mojtaba or traditional clerical symbols. These factional tensions and power vacuums shape trader assessments of whether a coordinated military or security-force attempt to seize control will occur by year-end, distinct from rhetorical accusations or external regime-change efforts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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