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Політика·Європа

Iceland EU Referendum: Margin of Victory

icon for Iceland EU Referendum: Margin of Victory
Політика·Європа

Iceland EU Referendum: Margin of Victory

No 3–6% 99.4%

No <3% 1.0%

Yes 9–12% <1%

Yes 3–6% <1%

Polymarket

$16,834 Обс.

No 3–6% 99.4%

No <3% 1.0%

Yes 9–12% <1%

Yes 3–6% <1%

Polymarket

$16,834 Обс.

Yes 15%+

$827 Обс.

1%

Yes 12–15%

$323 Обс.

1%

Yes 9–12%

$2,594 Обс.

1%

Yes 6–9%

$315 Обс.

1%

Yes 3–6%

$1,117 Обс.

1%

Yes <3%

$382 Обс.

1%

No <3%

$3,391 Обс.

1%

No 3–6%

$1,284 Обс.

99%

No 6–9%

$424 Обс.

1%

No 9–12%

$355 Обс.

1%

No 12–15%

$297 Обс.

1%

No 15%+

$5,525 Обс.

1%

The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Iceland's August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations produced a narrow "No" victory of roughly five percentage points, aligning with the market's dominant 96% probability on a 3–6% margin for rejection. Rural constituencies, where fishing rights and national sovereignty concerns dominated debate, delivered decisive opposition exceeding 60% in several districts, offsetting stronger "Yes" support in Reykjavík. Late polling showed a near-tie before rural turnout confirmed the outcome, consistent with historical patterns of geographic divides on EU-related questions. Final certified results and any procedural reviews remain the only realistic paths to a different margin classification.

The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.

The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.

This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Обсяг
$16,834
Дата завершення
Aug 29, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x69c47De9D...
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Iceland's August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations produced a narrow "No" victory of roughly five percentage points, aligning with the market's dominant 96% probability on a 3–6% margin for rejection. Rural constituencies, where fishing rights and national sovereignty concerns dominated debate, delivered decisive opposition exceeding 60% in several districts, offsetting stronger "Yes" support in Reykjavík. Late polling showed a near-tie before rural turnout confirmed the outcome, consistent with historical patterns of geographic divides on EU-related questions. Final certified results and any procedural reviews remain the only realistic paths to a different margin classification.

The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.

The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.

This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Обсяг
$16,834
Дата завершення
Aug 29, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x69c47De9D...
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Пов'язане

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Will turnout in the Icelandic EU membership negotiations referendum be between 80–85%?

75%
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Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?

1%
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Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate primary by 6–9%?

97%

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Iceland EU Referendum: Margin of Victory» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 12 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «No 3–6%» з 99%, далі «Yes 15%+» з 1%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Iceland EU Referendum: Margin of Victory» згенерував $16.8K загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Aug 27, 2026. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Iceland EU Referendum: Margin of Victory», перегляньте 12 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточний фаворит для «Iceland EU Referendum: Margin of Victory» — «No 3–6%» з 99%. Наступний — «Yes 15%+» з 1%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.

Правила вирішення для «Iceland EU Referendum: Margin of Victory» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.