**Geopolitical tensions and persistent attacks on vessels have driven the market-implied odds heavily toward the 20-39 ship range at 74%, with <20 at 23.5%.** Escalating US-Iran clashes, including American strikes on Iranian positions in the Strait and reported tanker incidents in late August, have prompted shipowners to reroute, disable AIS transponders, or sharply limit transits, pushing visible commodity vessel counts to single digits per day per Kpler and IMF PortWatch data—well below the pre-crisis baseline of roughly 85–130 daily. This environment of elevated war-risk premiums, route uncertainty, and sanctions exposure has compressed weekly totals far below historical norms, aligning trader consensus with subdued activity levels amid ongoing enforcement actions and mine threats. Key near-term data releases on actual transits could refine positioning ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 31?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 31?
20-39 76%
<20 22%
40-59 3.3%
60-79 <1%
$43,239 Обс.
$43,239 Обс.
Sep 6, 2026
<20
22%
20-39
76%
40-59
3%
60-79
1%
80+
1%
20-39 76%
<20 22%
40-59 3.3%
60-79 <1%
$43,239 Обс.
$43,239 Обс.
Sep 6, 2026
<20
$11,661 Обс.
22%
20-39
$23,767 Обс.
76%
40-59
$4,518 Обс.
3%
60-79
$1,846 Обс.
1%
80+
$1,447 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Geopolitical tensions and persistent attacks on vessels have driven the market-implied odds heavily toward the 20-39 ship range at 74%, with <20 at 23.5%.** Escalating US-Iran clashes, including American strikes on Iranian positions in the Strait and reported tanker incidents in late August, have prompted shipowners to reroute, disable AIS transponders, or sharply limit transits, pushing visible commodity vessel counts to single digits per day per Kpler and IMF PortWatch data—well below the pre-crisis baseline of roughly 85–130 daily. This environment of elevated war-risk premiums, route uncertainty, and sanctions exposure has compressed weekly totals far below historical norms, aligning trader consensus with subdued activity levels amid ongoing enforcement actions and mine threats. Key near-term data releases on actual transits could refine positioning ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Обсяг
$43,239Дата завершення
Sep 6, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Geopolitical tensions and persistent attacks on vessels have driven the market-implied odds heavily toward the 20-39 ship range at 74%, with <20 at 23.5%.** Escalating US-Iran clashes, including American strikes on Iranian positions in the Strait and reported tanker incidents in late August, have prompted shipowners to reroute, disable AIS transponders, or sharply limit transits, pushing visible commodity vessel counts to single digits per day per Kpler and IMF PortWatch data—well below the pre-crisis baseline of roughly 85–130 daily. This environment of elevated war-risk premiums, route uncertainty, and sanctions exposure has compressed weekly totals far below historical norms, aligning trader consensus with subdued activity levels amid ongoing enforcement actions and mine threats. Key near-term data releases on actual transits could refine positioning ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Обсяг
$43,239Дата завершення
Sep 6, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Geopolitical tensions and persistent attacks on vessels have driven the market-implied odds heavily toward the 20-39 ship range at 74%, with <20 at 23.5%.** Escalating US-Iran clashes, including American strikes on Iranian positions in the Strait and reported tanker incidents in late August, have prompted shipowners to reroute, disable AIS transponders, or sharply limit transits, pushing visible commodity vessel counts to single digits per day per Kpler and IMF PortWatch data—well below the pre-crisis baseline of roughly 85–130 daily. This environment of elevated war-risk premiums, route uncertainty, and sanctions exposure has compressed weekly totals far below historical norms, aligning trader consensus with subdued activity levels amid ongoing enforcement actions and mine threats. Key near-term data releases on actual transits could refine positioning ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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