Recent Houthi seizures of Mokha, Perim Island, and Dhubab have sharply curtailed Bab el-Mandeb transits, with daily crossings halving to around 15 on September 11 from prior levels near 30, per Kpler data, amid a broader regional squeeze that includes collapsed Hormuz flows. This geopolitical escalation—tied to the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict—has accelerated rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, elevated insurance and freight rates, and pressured Saudi-linked crude loadings, with tanker activity already trending toward 20-25 vessels per day in recent weeks versus 2023 baselines above 60. Market-implied odds favoring the 190-209 bracket at 39% alongside elevated probabilities for 230+ reflect trader expectations of partial continuity for non-targeted vessels and some rebound from summer lows near 170-189, while the 22.5% chance for sub-170 incorporates downside risks from sustained embargoes and dark transits. Upcoming catalysts include any Houthi enforcement actions or naval responses that could further compress volumes in the week ahead.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 14?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 14?
210-229 27%
170-189 23%
<170 23%
190-209 23%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 20, 2026
<170
23%
170-189
23%
190-209
23%
210-229
27%
230+
21%
210-229 27%
170-189 23%
<170 23%
190-209 23%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 20, 2026
<170
$0 Обс.
23%
170-189
$0 Обс.
23%
190-209
$0 Обс.
23%
210-229
$0 Обс.
27%
230+
$0 Обс.
21%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi seizures of Mokha, Perim Island, and Dhubab have sharply curtailed Bab el-Mandeb transits, with daily crossings halving to around 15 on September 11 from prior levels near 30, per Kpler data, amid a broader regional squeeze that includes collapsed Hormuz flows. This geopolitical escalation—tied to the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict—has accelerated rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, elevated insurance and freight rates, and pressured Saudi-linked crude loadings, with tanker activity already trending toward 20-25 vessels per day in recent weeks versus 2023 baselines above 60. Market-implied odds favoring the 190-209 bracket at 39% alongside elevated probabilities for 230+ reflect trader expectations of partial continuity for non-targeted vessels and some rebound from summer lows near 170-189, while the 22.5% chance for sub-170 incorporates downside risks from sustained embargoes and dark transits. Upcoming catalysts include any Houthi enforcement actions or naval responses that could further compress volumes in the week ahead.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79cВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi seizures of Mokha, Perim Island, and Dhubab have sharply curtailed Bab el-Mandeb transits, with daily crossings halving to around 15 on September 11 from prior levels near 30, per Kpler data, amid a broader regional squeeze that includes collapsed Hormuz flows. This geopolitical escalation—tied to the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict—has accelerated rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, elevated insurance and freight rates, and pressured Saudi-linked crude loadings, with tanker activity already trending toward 20-25 vessels per day in recent weeks versus 2023 baselines above 60. Market-implied odds favoring the 190-209 bracket at 39% alongside elevated probabilities for 230+ reflect trader expectations of partial continuity for non-targeted vessels and some rebound from summer lows near 170-189, while the 22.5% chance for sub-170 incorporates downside risks from sustained embargoes and dark transits. Upcoming catalysts include any Houthi enforcement actions or naval responses that could further compress volumes in the week ahead.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79cВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi seizures of Mokha, Perim Island, and Dhubab have sharply curtailed Bab el-Mandeb transits, with daily crossings halving to around 15 on September 11 from prior levels near 30, per Kpler data, amid a broader regional squeeze that includes collapsed Hormuz flows. This geopolitical escalation—tied to the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict—has accelerated rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, elevated insurance and freight rates, and pressured Saudi-linked crude loadings, with tanker activity already trending toward 20-25 vessels per day in recent weeks versus 2023 baselines above 60. Market-implied odds favoring the 190-209 bracket at 39% alongside elevated probabilities for 230+ reflect trader expectations of partial continuity for non-targeted vessels and some rebound from summer lows near 170-189, while the 22.5% chance for sub-170 incorporates downside risks from sustained embargoes and dark transits. Upcoming catalysts include any Houthi enforcement actions or naval responses that could further compress volumes in the week ahead.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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