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Економ·Тарифи Fed

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?

icon for How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?
Економ·Тарифи Fed

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?

НОВЕ
Sep 30, 2026
Polymarket

$0.00 Обс.

Polymarket

4.90%

$0 Обс.

5%

4.83%

$0 Обс.

37%

4.78%

$0 Обс.

50%

4.73%

$0 Обс.

50%

4.70%

$0 Обс.

50%

4.67%

$0 Обс.

50%

4.64%

$0 Обс.

50%

4.61%

$0 Обс.

52%

4.58%

$0 Обс.

64%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent persistence in U.S. inflation, with July 2026 PCE at 3.7% year-over-year and core at 3.3%, continues to anchor trader focus on the 5-year Treasury yield amid the September observation window. The effective federal funds rate sits at 3.50–3.75%, yet markets price in a meaningful probability of a September FOMC hike as the Fed under Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizes price stability. Elevated Treasury supply from fiscal deficits near 5.8% of GDP and public debt exceeding $40 trillion has lifted term premium, pushing the 5-year yield to approximately 4.52–4.55% in early September—up sharply from sub-4% levels earlier in 2026—primarily through higher real rates. Key near-term catalysts include incoming CPI and employment data plus the mid-month FOMC decision, which could shift the market-implied path for short-term rates and influence the 5-year segment.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Обсяг
$0
Дата завершення
Sep 30, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Sep 2, 2026, 9:06 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent persistence in U.S. inflation, with July 2026 PCE at 3.7% year-over-year and core at 3.3%, continues to anchor trader focus on the 5-year Treasury yield amid the September observation window. The effective federal funds rate sits at 3.50–3.75%, yet markets price in a meaningful probability of a September FOMC hike as the Fed under Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizes price stability. Elevated Treasury supply from fiscal deficits near 5.8% of GDP and public debt exceeding $40 trillion has lifted term premium, pushing the 5-year yield to approximately 4.52–4.55% in early September—up sharply from sub-4% levels earlier in 2026—primarily through higher real rates. Key near-term catalysts include incoming CPI and employment data plus the mid-month FOMC decision, which could shift the market-implied path for short-term rates and influence the 5-year segment.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Обсяг
$0
Дата завершення
Sep 30, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Sep 2, 2026, 9:06 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x65070BE91...

Пов'язане

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63%

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 9 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «4.58%» з 64%, далі «4.61%» з 52%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

«How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?» — це нещодавно створений ринок на Polymarket, запущений Sep 2, 2026. Як ранній ринок, це ваша можливість бути серед перших трейдерів, що встановлюють шанси. Ви також можете зберегти цю сторінку в закладки для відстеження обсягу.

Щоб торгувати на «How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?», перегляньте 9 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточний фаворит для «How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?» — «4.58%» з 64%. Наступний — «4.61%» з 52%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.

Правила вирішення для «How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.