**Recent forecast updates from meteorological agencies and models indicate a southerly change arriving over Wellington on September 7, 2026, driving cooler conditions and positioning 12–14°C as the most probable daily maximum range.** A shift from prevailing northwesterlies to stronger southerly winds, combined with widespread rain and high cloud cover, is expected to suppress daytime heating. Official guidance from sources such as MetService and international models (GFS, ECMWF) consistently shows highs near 11–13°C under these conditions, with some runs peaking at 14°C if breaks in cloud allow brief warming. This aligns with spring climatology, where southerly outbreaks frequently cap maxima 3–5°C below seasonal averages. Trader consensus, reflected in the heavy weighting toward 12–14°C outcomes (collectively over 88% implied probability), incorporates model consensus and historical analogs for similar frontal passages. Minor spreads in guidance—particularly around exact timing of the wind shift and rainfall intensity—create the observed distribution, with lower probabilities assigned to extremes outside this narrow band. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these implied odds ahead of market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Wellington on September 7?
Highest temperature in Wellington on September 7?
13°C 41%
12°C 26%
14°C 22%
15°C 9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 7, 2026
9°C or below
1%
10°C
3%
11°C
7%
12°C
26%
13°C
41%
14°C
22%
15°C
9%
16°C
4%
17°C
3%
18°C
3%
19°C or higher
3%
13°C 41%
12°C 26%
14°C 22%
15°C 9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 7, 2026
9°C or below
$5 Обс.
1%
10°C
$19 Обс.
3%
11°C
$44 Обс.
7%
12°C
$31 Обс.
26%
13°C
$234 Обс.
41%
14°C
$376 Обс.
22%
15°C
$112 Обс.
9%
16°C
$4 Обс.
4%
17°C
$22 Обс.
3%
18°C
$35 Обс.
3%
19°C or higher
$20 Обс.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecast updates from meteorological agencies and models indicate a southerly change arriving over Wellington on September 7, 2026, driving cooler conditions and positioning 12–14°C as the most probable daily maximum range.**
A shift from prevailing northwesterlies to stronger southerly winds, combined with widespread rain and high cloud cover, is expected to suppress daytime heating. Official guidance from sources such as MetService and international models (GFS, ECMWF) consistently shows highs near 11–13°C under these conditions, with some runs peaking at 14°C if breaks in cloud allow brief warming. This aligns with spring climatology, where southerly outbreaks frequently cap maxima 3–5°C below seasonal averages.
Trader consensus, reflected in the heavy weighting toward 12–14°C outcomes (collectively over 88% implied probability), incorporates model consensus and historical analogs for similar frontal passages. Minor spreads in guidance—particularly around exact timing of the wind shift and rainfall intensity—create the observed distribution, with lower probabilities assigned to extremes outside this narrow band. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these implied odds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 5, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Обсяг
$902Дата завершення
Sep 7, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 5, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecast updates from meteorological agencies and models indicate a southerly change arriving over Wellington on September 7, 2026, driving cooler conditions and positioning 12–14°C as the most probable daily maximum range.**
A shift from prevailing northwesterlies to stronger southerly winds, combined with widespread rain and high cloud cover, is expected to suppress daytime heating. Official guidance from sources such as MetService and international models (GFS, ECMWF) consistently shows highs near 11–13°C under these conditions, with some runs peaking at 14°C if breaks in cloud allow brief warming. This aligns with spring climatology, where southerly outbreaks frequently cap maxima 3–5°C below seasonal averages.
Trader consensus, reflected in the heavy weighting toward 12–14°C outcomes (collectively over 88% implied probability), incorporates model consensus and historical analogs for similar frontal passages. Minor spreads in guidance—particularly around exact timing of the wind shift and rainfall intensity—create the observed distribution, with lower probabilities assigned to extremes outside this narrow band. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these implied odds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$902Дата завершення
Sep 7, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 5, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Recent forecast updates from meteorological agencies and models indicate a southerly change arriving over Wellington on September 7, 2026, driving cooler conditions and positioning 12–14°C as the most probable daily maximum range.** A shift from prevailing northwesterlies to stronger southerly winds, combined with widespread rain and high cloud cover, is expected to suppress daytime heating. Official guidance from sources such as MetService and international models (GFS, ECMWF) consistently shows highs near 11–13°C under these conditions, with some runs peaking at 14°C if breaks in cloud allow brief warming. This aligns with spring climatology, where southerly outbreaks frequently cap maxima 3–5°C below seasonal averages. Trader consensus, reflected in the heavy weighting toward 12–14°C outcomes (collectively over 88% implied probability), incorporates model consensus and historical analogs for similar frontal passages. Minor spreads in guidance—particularly around exact timing of the wind shift and rainfall intensity—create the observed distribution, with lower probabilities assigned to extremes outside this narrow band. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these implied odds ahead of market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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