Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models point to persistent rain, high cloud cover, and northerly flow tied to Typhoon No. 25 approaching the Kanto region as the main driver keeping Tokyo’s September 20 maximum near 23–24 °C. These conditions suppress daytime heating below the late-September climatological normal of roughly 26–27 °C. Trader consensus reflected in the 48.5 % implied probability for 23 °C and 25.5 % for 24 °C aligns with this model agreement, while lower odds for 25 °C or higher capture the remaining uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and any late clearing. Updated JMA guidance and next model runs ahead of the 20th will provide the key data points for any shift in positioning.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 20?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 20?
23°C 51%
24°C 31%
22°C 10%
25°C 10%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 20, 2026
19°C or below
2%
20°C
2%
21°C
5%
22°C
10%
23°C
49%
24°C
24%
25°C
11%
26°C
10%
27°C
3%
28°C
4%
29°C or higher
<1%
23°C 51%
24°C 31%
22°C 10%
25°C 10%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 20, 2026
19°C or below
$0 Обс.
2%
20°C
$0 Обс.
2%
21°C
$113 Обс.
5%
22°C
$10 Обс.
10%
23°C
$893 Обс.
49%
24°C
$18 Обс.
24%
25°C
$20 Обс.
11%
26°C
$0 Обс.
10%
27°C
$5 Обс.
3%
28°C
$0 Обс.
4%
29°C or higher
$126 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models point to persistent rain, high cloud cover, and northerly flow tied to Typhoon No. 25 approaching the Kanto region as the main driver keeping Tokyo’s September 20 maximum near 23–24 °C. These conditions suppress daytime heating below the late-September climatological normal of roughly 26–27 °C. Trader consensus reflected in the 48.5 % implied probability for 23 °C and 25.5 % for 24 °C aligns with this model agreement, while lower odds for 25 °C or higher capture the remaining uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and any late clearing. Updated JMA guidance and next model runs ahead of the 20th will provide the key data points for any shift in positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Обсяг
$1,185Дата завершення
Sep 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models point to persistent rain, high cloud cover, and northerly flow tied to Typhoon No. 25 approaching the Kanto region as the main driver keeping Tokyo’s September 20 maximum near 23–24 °C. These conditions suppress daytime heating below the late-September climatological normal of roughly 26–27 °C. Trader consensus reflected in the 48.5 % implied probability for 23 °C and 25.5 % for 24 °C aligns with this model agreement, while lower odds for 25 °C or higher capture the remaining uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and any late clearing. Updated JMA guidance and next model runs ahead of the 20th will provide the key data points for any shift in positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$1,185Дата завершення
Sep 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models point to persistent rain, high cloud cover, and northerly flow tied to Typhoon No. 25 approaching the Kanto region as the main driver keeping Tokyo’s September 20 maximum near 23–24 °C. These conditions suppress daytime heating below the late-September climatological normal of roughly 26–27 °C. Trader consensus reflected in the 48.5 % implied probability for 23 °C and 25.5 % for 24 °C aligns with this model agreement, while lower odds for 25 °C or higher capture the remaining uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and any late clearing. Updated JMA guidance and next model runs ahead of the 20th will provide the key data points for any shift in positioning.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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