Latest ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF models indicate a stable high-pressure system over western Europe, with southerly flow and abundant sunshine positioning Paris for a daily maximum near 34–35°C on August 12. These conditions favor strong daytime heating, though slight timing differences in boundary-layer winds or thin high cloud could shift the peak by 1°C. Météo-France’s seasonal outlook assigns a 60% probability of above-normal August temperatures across France, consistent with current model consensus and warmer-than-average recent weeks. With resolution only two days away, updated 48-hour runs will refine the exact threshold, but trader-implied odds align closely with this narrow forecast range around the upper 30s Celsius.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Paris on August 12?
Highest temperature in Paris on August 12?
35°C 49%
34°C 26%
36°C 19%
33°C 4%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 12, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
1%
33°C
4%
34°C
26%
35°C
49%
36°C
19%
37°C
4%
38°C
1%
39°C or higher
<1%
35°C 49%
34°C 26%
36°C 19%
33°C 4%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 12, 2026
29°C or below
$1,850 Обс.
<1%
30°C
$171 Обс.
<1%
31°C
$711 Обс.
<1%
32°C
$294 Обс.
1%
33°C
$566 Обс.
4%
34°C
$880 Обс.
26%
35°C
$1,230 Обс.
49%
36°C
$479 Обс.
19%
37°C
$335 Обс.
4%
38°C
$211 Обс.
1%
39°C or higher
$231 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF models indicate a stable high-pressure system over western Europe, with southerly flow and abundant sunshine positioning Paris for a daily maximum near 34–35°C on August 12. These conditions favor strong daytime heating, though slight timing differences in boundary-layer winds or thin high cloud could shift the peak by 1°C. Météo-France’s seasonal outlook assigns a 60% probability of above-normal August temperatures across France, consistent with current model consensus and warmer-than-average recent weeks. With resolution only two days away, updated 48-hour runs will refine the exact threshold, but trader-implied odds align closely with this narrow forecast range around the upper 30s Celsius.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 10, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Обсяг
$6,958Дата завершення
Aug 12, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 10, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF models indicate a stable high-pressure system over western Europe, with southerly flow and abundant sunshine positioning Paris for a daily maximum near 34–35°C on August 12. These conditions favor strong daytime heating, though slight timing differences in boundary-layer winds or thin high cloud could shift the peak by 1°C. Météo-France’s seasonal outlook assigns a 60% probability of above-normal August temperatures across France, consistent with current model consensus and warmer-than-average recent weeks. With resolution only two days away, updated 48-hour runs will refine the exact threshold, but trader-implied odds align closely with this narrow forecast range around the upper 30s Celsius.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$6,958Дата завершення
Aug 12, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 10, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF models indicate a stable high-pressure system over western Europe, with southerly flow and abundant sunshine positioning Paris for a daily maximum near 34–35°C on August 12. These conditions favor strong daytime heating, though slight timing differences in boundary-layer winds or thin high cloud could shift the peak by 1°C. Météo-France’s seasonal outlook assigns a 60% probability of above-normal August temperatures across France, consistent with current model consensus and warmer-than-average recent weeks. With resolution only two days away, updated 48-hour runs will refine the exact threshold, but trader-implied odds align closely with this narrow forecast range around the upper 30s Celsius.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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