Aisha Wahab holds an 86% implied probability in the August 18 special general election runoff for California's 14th Congressional District because she finished first in the June 16 top-two primary by a wide margin of more than 20 points, securing roughly 38-43% of the vote compared with Melissa Hernandez's 17%. The heavily Democratic Bay Area seat, vacant after Eric Swalwell's April resignation, guarantees a Democratic winner regardless of the outcome. Wahab's primary performance, combined with her profile as a sitting state senator and repeat candidate for the district, has translated into strong trader consensus. Hernandez, a BART board president and former Dublin mayor, advanced as the second-place finisher and has outpaced Wahab in recent fundraising, yet trails substantially in primary vote share and faces an uphill path in the one-on-one contest. Minor candidates remain at negligible probabilities given the runoff format.