Recent generic ballot polling shows Democrats holding a consistent 4- to 7-point national edge, aligning with historical midterm shifts against the president’s party and positioning Democratic popular-vote margins of roughly 6-12 points as the most probable outcomes in trader pricing. A narrow Republican House majority, combined with Democratic overperformance in 2026 special elections and elevated retirements among GOP incumbents, reinforces expectations of a swing toward the opposition. Redistricting changes in key states add uncertainty to seat translation but have not altered the underlying national vote trend. With Election Day approaching, the distribution of probabilities across several Democratic bands and a sizable “other” share reflects ongoing variability in turnout, economic conditions, and late-cycle developments that could still compress or expand the final margin.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоDemocrats 8-10% 27%
Democrats 10-12% 22%
Democrats 6-8% 21%
Democrats 4-6% 12%
$119,835 Обс.
$119,835 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Democrats 16%+
1%
Democrats 14-16%
1%
Democrats 12-14%
7%
Democrats 10-12%
22%
Democrats 8-10%
27%
Democrats 6-8%
21%
Democrats 4-6%
12%
Democrats 2-4%
6%
Democrats 0-2%
2%
Republicans 0-2%
5%
Republicans 2-4%
3%
Republicans 4-6%
1%
Republicans 6%+
2%
Democrats 8-10% 27%
Democrats 10-12% 22%
Democrats 6-8% 21%
Democrats 4-6% 12%
$119,835 Обс.
$119,835 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Democrats 16%+
$3,158 Обс.
1%
Democrats 14-16%
$2,466 Обс.
1%
Democrats 12-14%
$4,106 Обс.
7%
Democrats 10-12%
$8,035 Обс.
22%
Democrats 8-10%
$13,886 Обс.
27%
Democrats 6-8%
$13,942 Обс.
21%
Democrats 4-6%
$5,294 Обс.
12%
Democrats 2-4%
$14,161 Обс.
6%
Democrats 0-2%
$13,479 Обс.
2%
Republicans 0-2%
$5,143 Обс.
5%
Republicans 2-4%
$29,530 Обс.
3%
Republicans 4-6%
$2,878 Обс.
1%
Republicans 6%+
$3,756 Обс.
2%
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent generic ballot polling shows Democrats holding a consistent 4- to 7-point national edge, aligning with historical midterm shifts against the president’s party and positioning Democratic popular-vote margins of roughly 6-12 points as the most probable outcomes in trader pricing. A narrow Republican House majority, combined with Democratic overperformance in 2026 special elections and elevated retirements among GOP incumbents, reinforces expectations of a swing toward the opposition. Redistricting changes in key states add uncertainty to seat translation but have not altered the underlying national vote trend. With Election Day approaching, the distribution of probabilities across several Democratic bands and a sizable “other” share reflects ongoing variability in turnout, economic conditions, and late-cycle developments that could still compress or expand the final margin.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Ринок відкрито: Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Обсяг
$119,835Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent generic ballot polling shows Democrats holding a consistent 4- to 7-point national edge, aligning with historical midterm shifts against the president’s party and positioning Democratic popular-vote margins of roughly 6-12 points as the most probable outcomes in trader pricing. A narrow Republican House majority, combined with Democratic overperformance in 2026 special elections and elevated retirements among GOP incumbents, reinforces expectations of a swing toward the opposition. Redistricting changes in key states add uncertainty to seat translation but have not altered the underlying national vote trend. With Election Day approaching, the distribution of probabilities across several Democratic bands and a sizable “other” share reflects ongoing variability in turnout, economic conditions, and late-cycle developments that could still compress or expand the final margin.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Обсяг
$119,835Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent generic ballot polling shows Democrats holding a consistent 4- to 7-point national edge, aligning with historical midterm shifts against the president’s party and positioning Democratic popular-vote margins of roughly 6-12 points as the most probable outcomes in trader pricing. A narrow Republican House majority, combined with Democratic overperformance in 2026 special elections and elevated retirements among GOP incumbents, reinforces expectations of a swing toward the opposition. Redistricting changes in key states add uncertainty to seat translation but have not altered the underlying national vote trend. With Election Day approaching, the distribution of probabilities across several Democratic bands and a sizable “other” share reflects ongoing variability in turnout, economic conditions, and late-cycle developments that could still compress or expand the final margin.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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