**The 63% trader consensus for impeachment before January 2029 centers on the 2026 midterm elections as the pivotal catalyst.** With Republicans currently holding the House, articles of impeachment require a majority that the GOP majority has resisted. A Democratic takeover would create divided government, aligning with historical patterns where opposition control often prompts formal proceedings. Democrats have introduced multiple resolutions citing foreign policy actions, executive conduct, and other matters, though these have been tabled under current margins. Party leaders emphasize investigations first if the House flips, while Trump has publicly linked Republican midterm success to avoiding renewed impeachment efforts. Senate conviction remains a separate hurdle, but the market pricing reflects the probability of House action enabled by electoral shifts within the term window.