Trader consensus at 79% implied probability for a tropical cyclone landfall on Honshu this August aligns with the climatological peak of the western North Pacific typhoon season. Warm sea-surface temperatures above 26–28°C and a strengthened monsoon trough favor multiple system formations, with historical averages of 2–4 typhoons affecting Japan annually during the month. Current Japan Meteorological Agency monitoring shows active genesis areas east of the Philippines, while steering patterns influenced by the subtropical ridge often direct tracks northwest toward Honshu. Model consensus from NOAA and ECMWF highlights elevated landfall potential through late August, though variability in the subtropical jet and rapid intensification thresholds introduce realistic uncertainty in exact timing and intensity.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWill a tropical cyclone make landfall on Honshu in August 2026?
Will a tropical cyclone make landfall on Honshu in August 2026?
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BAGO
BAGO
Sep 1, 2026
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Sep 1, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a tropical cyclone makes landfall on Honshu, Japan between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A tropical cyclone is a system classified by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) as a tropical storm or stronger, meaning maximum sustained winds (10-minute average) of at least 34 knots (17.2 m/s), in the JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the landfall. A system classified only as a tropical depression, or as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, at that time does not qualify.
Landfall means the center of the tropical cyclone's circulation physically crosses the coastline of Honshu. A system whose center crosses the coastline only of Hokkaido, Kyushu, Shikoku, Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, or any smaller island, or that passes over or near Honshu without its center crossing the Honshu coastline, does not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Japan Meteorological Agency's position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en). If a JMA advisory plots the storm's center over Honshu, this market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center over Honshu but credible international news reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, this market resolves "Yes", with classification taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. Where a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time, JMA is the default resolution source.
Once a qualifying landfall is reported, this market may remain open for up to 36 hours to establish confirmation, after which it will resolve according to the latest JMA data. This market may resolve based on the initial JMA advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that changes the storm's classification or position at the time of landfall.Trader consensus at 79% implied probability for a tropical cyclone landfall on Honshu this August aligns with the climatological peak of the western North Pacific typhoon season. Warm sea-surface temperatures above 26–28°C and a strengthened monsoon trough favor multiple system formations, with historical averages of 2–4 typhoons affecting Japan annually during the month. Current Japan Meteorological Agency monitoring shows active genesis areas east of the Philippines, while steering patterns influenced by the subtropical ridge often direct tracks northwest toward Honshu. Model consensus from NOAA and ECMWF highlights elevated landfall potential through late August, though variability in the subtropical jet and rapid intensification thresholds introduce realistic uncertainty in exact timing and intensity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a tropical cyclone makes landfall on Honshu, Japan between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A tropical cyclone is a system classified by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) as a tropical storm or stronger, meaning maximum sustained winds (10-minute average) of at least 34 knots (17.2 m/s), in the JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the landfall. A system classified only as a tropical depression, or as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, at that time does not qualify.
Landfall means the center of the tropical cyclone's circulation physically crosses the coastline of Honshu. A system whose center crosses the coastline only of Hokkaido, Kyushu, Shikoku, Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, or any smaller island, or that passes over or near Honshu without its center crossing the Honshu coastline, does not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Japan Meteorological Agency's position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en). If a JMA advisory plots the storm's center over Honshu, this market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center over Honshu but credible international news reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, this market resolves "Yes", with classification taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. Where a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time, JMA is the default resolution source.
Once a qualifying landfall is reported, this market may remain open for up to 36 hours to establish confirmation, after which it will resolve according to the latest JMA data. This market may resolve based on the initial JMA advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that changes the storm's classification or position at the time of landfall.
A tropical cyclone is a system classified by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) as a tropical storm or stronger, meaning maximum sustained winds (10-minute average) of at least 34 knots (17.2 m/s), in the JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the landfall. A system classified only as a tropical depression, or as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, at that time does not qualify.
Landfall means the center of the tropical cyclone's circulation physically crosses the coastline of Honshu. A system whose center crosses the coastline only of Hokkaido, Kyushu, Shikoku, Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, or any smaller island, or that passes over or near Honshu without its center crossing the Honshu coastline, does not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Japan Meteorological Agency's position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en). If a JMA advisory plots the storm's center over Honshu, this market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center over Honshu but credible international news reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, this market resolves "Yes", with classification taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. Where a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time, JMA is the default resolution source.
Once a qualifying landfall is reported, this market may remain open for up to 36 hours to establish confirmation, after which it will resolve according to the latest JMA data. This market may resolve based on the initial JMA advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that changes the storm's classification or position at the time of landfall.
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 10, 2026, 11:27 AM ET
Volume
$302Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 1, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 10, 2026, 11:27 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a tropical cyclone makes landfall on Honshu, Japan between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A tropical cyclone is a system classified by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) as a tropical storm or stronger, meaning maximum sustained winds (10-minute average) of at least 34 knots (17.2 m/s), in the JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the landfall. A system classified only as a tropical depression, or as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, at that time does not qualify.
Landfall means the center of the tropical cyclone's circulation physically crosses the coastline of Honshu. A system whose center crosses the coastline only of Hokkaido, Kyushu, Shikoku, Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, or any smaller island, or that passes over or near Honshu without its center crossing the Honshu coastline, does not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Japan Meteorological Agency's position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en). If a JMA advisory plots the storm's center over Honshu, this market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center over Honshu but credible international news reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, this market resolves "Yes", with classification taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. Where a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time, JMA is the default resolution source.
Once a qualifying landfall is reported, this market may remain open for up to 36 hours to establish confirmation, after which it will resolve according to the latest JMA data. This market may resolve based on the initial JMA advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that changes the storm's classification or position at the time of landfall.Trader consensus at 79% implied probability for a tropical cyclone landfall on Honshu this August aligns with the climatological peak of the western North Pacific typhoon season. Warm sea-surface temperatures above 26–28°C and a strengthened monsoon trough favor multiple system formations, with historical averages of 2–4 typhoons affecting Japan annually during the month. Current Japan Meteorological Agency monitoring shows active genesis areas east of the Philippines, while steering patterns influenced by the subtropical ridge often direct tracks northwest toward Honshu. Model consensus from NOAA and ECMWF highlights elevated landfall potential through late August, though variability in the subtropical jet and rapid intensification thresholds introduce realistic uncertainty in exact timing and intensity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a tropical cyclone makes landfall on Honshu, Japan between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A tropical cyclone is a system classified by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) as a tropical storm or stronger, meaning maximum sustained winds (10-minute average) of at least 34 knots (17.2 m/s), in the JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the landfall. A system classified only as a tropical depression, or as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, at that time does not qualify.
Landfall means the center of the tropical cyclone's circulation physically crosses the coastline of Honshu. A system whose center crosses the coastline only of Hokkaido, Kyushu, Shikoku, Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, or any smaller island, or that passes over or near Honshu without its center crossing the Honshu coastline, does not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Japan Meteorological Agency's position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en). If a JMA advisory plots the storm's center over Honshu, this market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center over Honshu but credible international news reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, this market resolves "Yes", with classification taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. Where a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time, JMA is the default resolution source.
Once a qualifying landfall is reported, this market may remain open for up to 36 hours to establish confirmation, after which it will resolve according to the latest JMA data. This market may resolve based on the initial JMA advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that changes the storm's classification or position at the time of landfall.
A tropical cyclone is a system classified by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) as a tropical storm or stronger, meaning maximum sustained winds (10-minute average) of at least 34 knots (17.2 m/s), in the JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the landfall. A system classified only as a tropical depression, or as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, at that time does not qualify.
Landfall means the center of the tropical cyclone's circulation physically crosses the coastline of Honshu. A system whose center crosses the coastline only of Hokkaido, Kyushu, Shikoku, Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, or any smaller island, or that passes over or near Honshu without its center crossing the Honshu coastline, does not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Japan Meteorological Agency's position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en). If a JMA advisory plots the storm's center over Honshu, this market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center over Honshu but credible international news reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, this market resolves "Yes", with classification taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. Where a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time, JMA is the default resolution source.
Once a qualifying landfall is reported, this market may remain open for up to 36 hours to establish confirmation, after which it will resolve according to the latest JMA data. This market may resolve based on the initial JMA advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that changes the storm's classification or position at the time of landfall.
Volume
$302Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 1, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 10, 2026, 11:27 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus at 79% implied probability for a tropical cyclone landfall on Honshu this August aligns with the climatological peak of the western North Pacific typhoon season. Warm sea-surface temperatures above 26–28°C and a strengthened monsoon trough favor multiple system formations, with historical averages of 2–4 typhoons affecting Japan annually during the month. Current Japan Meteorological Agency monitoring shows active genesis areas east of the Philippines, while steering patterns influenced by the subtropical ridge often direct tracks northwest toward Honshu. Model consensus from NOAA and ECMWF highlights elevated landfall potential through late August, though variability in the subtropical jet and rapid intensification thresholds introduce realistic uncertainty in exact timing and intensity.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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