Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 59% implied probability for the best AI model by end of November, driven by Claude Fable 5.1's September 1 release topping independent benchmarks such as BenchAlign v5 at 84.7 and strong SWE-bench coding results ahead of OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra. Recent frontier releases from OpenAI, Google, and others have narrowed gaps on context windows and agentic tasks, yet Anthropic's consistent leadership in verifiable evaluations like Terminal-Bench sustains its edge. With probabilities clustered near 50% for many contenders, traders weigh rapid iteration cycles, pricing shifts, and potential regulatory scrutiny on advanced capabilities as key swing factors before November resolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWhich company has the best AI model end of November?
Anthropic 59%
Alibaba 35%
Z.ai 26%
Google 25%

Anthropic
59%

Alibaba
35%

Z.ai
26%

23%

MiniMax
25%

OpenAI
21%

Mistral
20%

Meituan
20%

DeepSeek
19%

Tencent
19%

Moonshot
12%

Xiaomi
12%

Meta
10%

SpaceXAI
10%

Microsoft
9%

Nvidia
9%

Baidu
8%

StepFun
9%

Thinky
4%

ByteDance
11%

Amazon
12%
Anthropic 59%
Alibaba 35%
Z.ai 26%
Google 25%

Anthropic
59%

Alibaba
35%

Z.ai
26%

23%

MiniMax
25%

OpenAI
21%

Mistral
20%

Meituan
20%

DeepSeek
19%

Tencent
19%

Moonshot
12%

Xiaomi
12%

Meta
10%

SpaceXAI
10%

Microsoft
9%

Nvidia
9%

Baidu
8%

StepFun
9%

Thinky
4%

ByteDance
11%

Amazon
12%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Binuksan ang Market: Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 59% implied probability for the best AI model by end of November, driven by Claude Fable 5.1's September 1 release topping independent benchmarks such as BenchAlign v5 at 84.7 and strong SWE-bench coding results ahead of OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra. Recent frontier releases from OpenAI, Google, and others have narrowed gaps on context windows and agentic tasks, yet Anthropic's consistent leadership in verifiable evaluations like Terminal-Bench sustains its edge. With probabilities clustered near 50% for many contenders, traders weigh rapid iteration cycles, pricing shifts, and potential regulatory scrutiny on advanced capabilities as key swing factors before November resolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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